# BoC Rate Date - April 29, 2026 ![Apr 29](https://d2r7yk1mqahd04.cloudfront.net/images/Apr-29.png) ### April 29, 2026 # Another BoC pause. But is the oil shock rocking the rate boat? [Email link](https://mailchi.mp/dcc8f6a4bc78/april-2026-rate-pause-5386013?e=5beef5bcd8) *April 29, 2026* – The Bank of Canada stays calm, keeping its policy rate at 2.25% (which keeps most bank prime rates at 4.45%), and admits it doesn't know [where rates are going](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-expected-keep-benchmark-080010517.html) from here. **It's the 4th pause in a row** as the economic lurching intensifies, making us all **a little seasick**. Apparently, the potential hit from a [U.S. trade review](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/trade-uncertainty-rate-impact) this spring isn't enough — now an oil price shock resulting from the Iran conflict is trying to capsize the Canadian economy. Read on as we discuss what's going on, what could happen next, where rates might go this year, and **what it all means** for your mortgage and home decisions. > ## Some rates have already pulled up anchor. > - Fixed mortgage rates [have risen](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/how-government-bond-yields-relate-to-mortgage-rates) about 0.40% and may go higher if oil prices rise above $100/barrel ([say to about $140/barrel](https://www.thestar.com/real-estate/fixed-mortgage-rates-up-dramatically-since-start-of-iran-war-and-theyre-unlikely-to-drop/article_5ef84c15-632e-4c08-8d52-2024aa8cb10a.html)) > - Fixed rates could take weeks slash months to normalize even if oil supply routes are resumed 'tomorrow,' due to complexities of the conflict (like a 6-month [mine-clearing schedule](https://www.livemint.com/news/hormuz-blockade-us-plans-to-fill-kharg-island-storage-shut-irans-oil-wells-to-force-tehran-to-back-down-11776850172574.html)) > - Rising inflation expectations have many battening down the hatches — which may keep some homebuyers on pause longer > - Lender's **variable rate discounts** remain in place and are [cheaper than fixed](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates), but come with the [risk of prime rate increases](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/should-you-choose-a-variable-or-fixed-rate) --- # Rough seas ahead for interest rates? Before the Iran conflict brought about the fastest oil spike ever in one month and threw rate forecasts overboard, the BoC was expected to hold through 2026 as we wait for more certainty on the U.S. trade review. **But now? Rates going up? Rates going down? Lock your arm around a siderail and let's take a look.** ## Rising inflation sends up a red flag - Headline inflation is [up to 2.4%](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) in one month and could rise too fast — impacting inflation expectations and keeping prices higher for longer - Oil prices are over $100/barrel, with a [$90-99 price tag](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/federal-economic-update-oil-prices-9.7180752) estimated until at least September, which makes seeping into core inflation more likely - If headline inflation rises to about 3%, the BoC could still hold off from rate hikes - Inflation reaching [the 4% range](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/iran-war-mortgage-rates), however, would trigger BoC action - Rules are more like guidelines? The incoming U.S. Fed Chair has suggested a ["fairer" reading of inflation](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-chair-nominee-kevin-warsh-141100217.html) — will higher headline U.S. inflation be tolerated that winds its way to Canadian prices? - Right now, unprecedented uncertainty amid trade and geopolitical turmoil keeps the BoC in watch mode - The Canadian government reels in about [$175M CDN with every $1 U.S. increase](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/federal-economic-update-oil-prices-9.7180752) in oil prices, which could fuel infrastructure and jobs, but might prevent inflation from easing ## The economy may wave a white flag. - Rising energy prices are a tax on consumers and businesses, which typically results in a spending pullback (aka prices lowered in response) - A U.S. trade review that results in more tariffs could add to the oil shock and plunge an economy already walking the plank into recession - Despite the incoming revenue for Canada, higher oil prices usually work into longer-term consumer pain - If oil shock inflation moderates as a result of a slowing economy, a rate cut could be back on deck in 2026 ### Get your sea legs here. We track the economic ups and downs to help steady the course for mortgage planning. Get our CEO's insights and see if any experts agree on where rates are going next. **[READ OUR RATE FORECAST BLOG](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast)** --- ## Right foot first is a sailor's trick. Great advice is ours. ### The longer oil doesn't sail, the deeper high prices seep. We break down the energy-to-inflation mechanism and why oil (and other) prices could remain elevated for a while. **[OIL SHOCKING YOUR MORTGAGE DECISION?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/iran-war-mortgage-rates)** ### Ontario's homeowner protections are piling on mortgage costs. Evolving rules are extending timelines — adding costs for ON homeowners and lender risk, which shows up in your rate. **[POWER OF SALE DELAYS](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/foreclosure-rules-driving-higher-mortgage-rates)** ### Not every borrower fits the standard mortgage map. Here's a new cost-effective alternative mortgage for non-standard details, like self-employment or multiple income streams. **[MORTGAGE WAYFINDING](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/introducing-compass-alternative-mortgage)** --- # Land Ho! Best rate ahead. Amid rate uncertainty, True North clients have been [choosing a lower variable-rate](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/should-you-choose-a-variable-or-fixed-rate) 2-1 over fixed rates to save more on their mortgage. Most lenders allow a switch to a fixed rate [without penalty](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/mortgage-solutions/pre-payment-penalties-and-privileges) if you think [prime rates](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/prime-rate-mortgages-explained) will go up. Or, talk to us about a short-term fixed rate to see you through. **[SEE OUR REALLY SWELL RATES](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates)** **[SEE YOUR SAVINGS: COMPARE & SAVE CALCULATOR](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/tools/savings-calculator)** ## Storms are easier to weather with a navigator on board. We're pretty handy with a star chart and a lender list. With so much going on this year, our rigorously trained and salaried expert brokers find your best route to smooth sailing — helping you save over [$3,000 on average](https://apply.truenorthmortgage.ca/apply-online/start) (or more, depending on home prices in your area). Now is a good time to review your [upcoming renewal](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/renewal-should-you-stay-or-switch-lenders) to secure better rates or to consider buying your [first or next home,](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/mortgage-solutions) as deals pop up amid economic uncertainty. Whether your situation fits traditional application criteria or you need a [more flexible solution](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/introducing-compass-alternative-mortgage), we save our clients money, time, and stress. ## Renewing soon? [Calculate payments here](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/tools/renewal-calculator) ## Looking to refinance? [Apply now](https://apply.truenorthmortgage.ca/apply-online/start) --- ### Steady reads for unsteady waters - [Is now a good time to pick a variable rate?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/should-you-choose-a-variable-or-fixed-rate) - [How much will it cost to break your mortgage?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/how-much-will-it-cost-to-break-your-mortgage) - [Can side hustle income get you a better rate?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/side-hustle) - [Will fixed rates rise again? Watch bond yields for the sign](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/how-government-bond-yields-relate-to-mortgage-rates) - [Should you use a private lender?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/private-lender) / /