# BoC Rate Date - July 15, 2026 ![Jul15](https://d2r7yk1mqahd04.cloudfront.net/images/Jul15.png) ### July 15, 2026 # Bank of Canada holds, again. [Email link](https://mailchi.mp/1a881cada91f/july-2026-rate-pause-5386295?e=5beef5bcd8) - [DECISION · **HOLD** · 6th in a row](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) - [BOC RATE · **2.25%** · No Change](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) - [BANK PRIME · **4.45%** · No Change](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/prime-rate-mortgages-explained) - [NEXT DATE · **SEP 2** · 2026](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) ## Energy inflation risk is growing tall enough to seed — who's got the lawnmower? Prime rates are holding for now, but the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict is fertilizing higher oil prices, keeping pressure on bond yields — and **fixed mortgage rates**. While limited oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz, gas refining has been reduced worldwide by about 10%, risking the spread of persistent energy inflation and growing frustration at the gas pump, with average Canadian gas prices around $1.63/l and [expected to climb](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-prices-rising-9.7269273) within a week. ## The U.S. trade relationship? A melting ice cream cone. The CUSMA trade review is looking more like an attempt to renegotiate on the side, with the potential for tariffs to drip into more sectors. The already-observed impact of U.S. trade disruption on Canada's economic health is certain — but what's uncertain is whether further damage is in store. - [VARIABLE RATES · **Lender discounts stable** · No Change](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates) - [FIXED RATES · **Recently higher by ~0.10%** · Stable or trending up](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates) ## The economy? A staring contest between mad inflation and sad growth. Energy inflation risk threatens an eventual BoC policy [rate hike](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast). However, Canada's lukewarm growth prompted at least [one economist](https://financialpost.com/news/bank-of-canada-neutral-rate-high) to argue that the current BoC 'neutral' rate is still too high, and should be cut by 0.50% — which isn't likely to happen under inflation's stare. - **Headline inflation** rose in May like a hot air balloon to 3.2%, though it's expected to come closer to ground for June — that reading on Jul 20 - **Monthly GDP reading** for April was (finally) in positive territory at 0.5%, which quieted recessionary talk for now — next reading on Jul 31 - **Unemployment rate** fell again in June to 6.5% with +18K jobs, mostly from summer hires, perhaps a [World Cup bump](https://businessmodelanalyst.com/canada-unemployment-june-2026/)? Next reading Aug 7 --- ### A rate hold will eventually break — as a hike or cut? See what's next with our Mortgage Rate Forecast. Oil prices, energy inflation, and trade risks are all in play, but the BoC's next big move is likely still a few months away. ### [Read the forecast →](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) ### National housing market is showing signs of life (depending on where you live). Sales are up, listings are down, and home prices are stable, rising, or falling in some areas. Not entirely helpful, but also true. ### Our Housing Market blog → --- **[LAWN AND BEHOLD — LOWER RATES!](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates)** **[SEE YOUR SAVINGS – COMPARE & SAVE CALCULATOR](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/tools/savings-calculator)** --- ### Higher bond yields and fixed rates still fueled by energy inflation risk. Fixed mortgage rates track the Canada 5-year bond yield, which dropped after the U.S.-Iran MOU and rose when cancelled. How to watch for the next trend? ### [Read the blog →](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/how-government-bond-yields-relate-to-mortgage-rates) ### Choosing variable-rate savings is more popular, far outpacing fixed rates. A 5-year variable rate is about 0.60% lower than a 5-year fixed — offering a lot more budget room. But can you stomach the risk? We break it down to help you decide. ### [Read the blog →](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/should-you-choose-a-variable-or-fixed-rate) --- ## Renewing soon? [Calculate payments here](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/tools/renewal-calculator) ## Looking to refinance? [Apply now](https://apply.truenorthmortgage.ca/apply-online/start) --- ## Wait, there's more! - [What credit score gets you lower rates?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/what-credit-score-to-unlock-lower-mortgage-rates) - [Can you get the rate you see online? Not always](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/posted-rates-vs-actual-rates) - [For over 20 years, what's the secret behind our better rates?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/celebrating-our-20th-anniversary) - [Is an adjustable-rate mortgage better for your goals?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/adjustable-rate-mortgage-canada) / /