# BoC Rate Date - March 18, 2026 ![Mar 18](https://d2r7yk1mqahd04.cloudfront.net/images/Mar-18.png) ### March 18, 2026 # The BoC holds, but economic pressure is closing in. [Email link](https://mailchi.mp/124115dfad16/elbows-up-rate-cut-5385865?e=5beef5bcd8) *March 18, 2026* – The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% (which keeps most bank prime rates at 4.45%). It's the **third pause in a row** as economic uncertainty closes in — from a U.S. trade review this spring and now an oil price shock due to the Iran conflict. > ### In this update: > - Trade uncertainty and higher oil prices are pressuring rate and mortgage decisions > - Will Canada's economy get a rate cut rescue? > - Fixed rates have recently gone higher by 0.25% > - Cheaper variable rates are holding for now > - Shopping around could be your only hope (for a better mortgage budget) > - Get the answers you're looking for on how recent events could impact rates this year --- ## Shut down all the garbage mashers on the detention level! That's how fast the momentum for rate cuts in Canada ground to a halt, as potential rate hikes now slither at our feet. **The Iran conflict did two things:** shut down global oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global oil trade passes), and immediately hiked prices at gas pumps and airlines as oil rose from $72/barrel to around $100/barrel. **Then, two more things happened:** bond yields rose amid the threat of higher inflation that could bring future prime rate hikes, and fixed mortgage rates went up (this rate type is pulled around by the [rise and fall of yields](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/how-government-bond-yields-relate-to-mortgage-rates)). **Then, two *more* things happened:** The entire world tried to calculate how long it would take for [higher oil prices](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) to seep into everything — about 3 months, if oil hovers around $90 that long. And markets started pricing in BoC policy (and prime) rate hikes later this year, from 1 to 3 notches of 0.25%. **Let's hold it right there.** Yes, rising inflation driven by higher energy prices isn't good, especially with an already weakened economy due to a U.S. trade dispute. But as prices rise further, consumer spending is likely to decline, which could hold off the need for a hike. **It's waaayy too soon to call any of this.** Markets, economists, and rate forecasters are scrambling to stay on top of the pile — uncertainty will persist for several more weeks. **The longer oil prices remain high, however, the harder it will be to rescue the Canadian economy through BoC rate cuts.** > ### Caught in the battle between good and bad economic forces are everyday Canadians [buying a home](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/mortgage-solutions) or [renewing](https://globalnews.ca/news/11724079/iran-war-mortgage-renewal/) their mortgages. > - Fixed mortgage rates have risen about 0.25% and may go higher if oil prices rise above $100/barrel ([say to about $140/barrel](https://www.thestar.com/real-estate/fixed-mortgage-rates-up-dramatically-since-start-of-iran-war-and-theyre-unlikely-to-drop/article_5ef84c15-632e-4c08-8d52-2024aa8cb10a.html)) > - If the Iran conflict resolves soon, fixed rates could eventually go lower again as markets and supply routes normalize > - Variable rates are [lower than fixed](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates), but come with the [risk of prime rate increases](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/should-you-choose-a-variable-or-fixed-rate) --- ## What impacted today's BoC rate pause? ### The Light Side (a potential rate cut in 2026) - Weaker GDP growth is walking a recessionary line - A dismal February labour report underscores the need for a cut - A moderate [February inflation report](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast) provides a short-term buffer before today's higher energy prices factor in - Unprecedented uncertainty amid trade and geopolitical turmoil keeps the BoC in watch mode ### The Dark Side (a potential rate hike in 2026) - If core inflation rises above the BoC's target range of 1-3%, it may have to raise its policy rate, even if economic weakness persists - Additional inflation risks are pressing in, such as government debt and spending, rising U.S. inflation, tariffs, and trade route disruptions - **Stagflation** — Higher interest rates *and* a high unemployment rate could keep the economy in squashed mode for longer. ### Never tell me the odds (on mortgage rates). The market odds of a rate cut or hike keep swinging back and forth like duelling lightsabers. Follow the plot here. **[RATE FORECAST 2026-2030](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast)** --- ## The Force is strong with this one. ## (Dan's helpful mortgage advice for 2026.) ### Trade Q&A with CEO Dan Eisner. Will the trade war move rates this year? What should you do if you're renewing now? What signals should you watch? Read on. **[TARIFFS & MORTGAGE RATES](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/trade-uncertainty-rate-impact)** ### Iran Conflict Q&A with CEO Dan Eisner. Have rates already been affected? Will higher oil prices cancel rate cuts? Will the prime rate go up? Get some answers. **[OIL SHOCK & MORTGAGE RATES](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/iran-war-mortgage-rates)** --- ## These are the rates you're looking for. **[BETTER RATES, YOU WILL FIND (HERE)](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/rates)** ## "Help us, True North experts. You're our only hope." More Canadians are turning to an [expert broker](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/company) to shop around for their best deal. For [over 20 years](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/about-us/about-us), our salaried, unbiased experts have been **obsessed with finding your best rate and mortgage**, helping to find budget relief when markets feel tight. Whether your situation fits traditional application criteria or you need a [more flexible solution](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/introducing-compass-alternative-mortgage), we save our clients over [$3,000 on average](https://apply.truenorthmortgage.ca/apply-online/start) (or more, depending on home prices in your area). ## Renewing soon? [Calculate payments here.](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/tools/renewal-calculator) ## Want a friendly renewal reminder? [Set it up now.](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/tools/mortgage-renewal-reminder) --- ### Search your feelings — and our great advice - [Is now a good time to pick a variable rate?](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/should-you-choose-a-variable-or-fixed-rate) - [An alternative mortgage that's light years ahead](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/introducing-compass-alternative-mortgage) - [Why you should be wary of rate comparison sites](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-comparison-sites) - [A too-good-to-be variable rate? Ask about this](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/semi-annual-interest-compounding-vs-monthly) - [Learn the power of a bigger down payment](https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/why-a-bigger-down-payment-can-result-in-a-higher-rate) / /