Forecasting home prices and market trends from 2026 to 2029.
Tariffs, energy costs, and economic uncertainty are reshaping what Canadian home buyers and sellers can expect. Where are prices headed? Which markets offer better affordability? And is now the time to buy, sell, or wait? Here's what the data and housing experts signal for 2026 and beyond.
According to CREA's latest report for May 2026, things are looking up. Nationally, average home sales look better than last month, though still down from a year ago. A slight dip in inventory is keeping both buyers and sellers aligned, helping to stabilize home prices from the deeper softening seen earlier in the year.
Fixed mortgage rates are easing following a decline in oil prices. However, the recent surge in energy prices and U.S. trade uncertainty are likely to weigh on the typically busier buying season.
Next CREA update on July 15, 2026
$667,700 in May 2026 (an increase of 0.23% m/m from April's $664,200)
This statistic logged a 4.12% year-over-year decline and was 21% below the $841,300 peak MLS®HPI recorded in March 2022.
(as per MLS® HPI Aggregate Composite Benchmark, not seasonally adjusted)
Housing experts are seeing signs of market life — but trade and inflation uncertainties are invasive weeds creeping into homeownership decisions.
More home buyers are coming off the sidelines as rate uncertainty makes 'now' look like a good time to look around. However, with other costs rising from a recent energy spike and trade uncertainties hanging in the air like the scent of lilacs, it's not a stampede to local open houses, despite the potential for a rate hike in the latter half of the year.
Sellers are cautious, watching markets to gauge if asking prices are being met, especially in down-trend markets in BC, Alberta, and Ontario.
Read on for what some housing experts forecast for this year and beyond.
"The timing of higher [fixed] mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year – April, May, and June – as they wait for rates to come back down.”
– CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart
Note: All forecasts above are compiled from public market data and are subject to change.
Are housing forecasts for real, or are they just 'Pin the Tail on the House Donkey' in predicting home sales and prices?
Housing experts can differ widely in their expectations for our national housing market. That's partly due to Canada's size, with regional differences often skewing the big picture — for example, Vancouver and Toronto's higher prices and activity volume compared to the rest of the country.
Housing stat sources are also notoriously difficult to compare like-for-like; the focus can change depending on the data highlighted (e.g. seasonal vs. non-seasonal), exclude some markets, or rely on 'in-house' data that may not align on a national scale.
At the end of 2026, we'll (safely) break out the sparklers to compare predictions with the actual results and see who pinned it the closest.
Canada's national average home price has cooled from last year and is down about 21% from the post-pandemic peak. However, it's still among the least affordable in the G7, skewed upward by more expensive markets in major city centres, like Vancouver and Toronto.
Home prices are shaped by a constant push and pull between supply, demand, and economic conditions. Here are some of the key factors at play:
From 2021 to 2023, a whopping 1 million newbies flocked to Canada each year, waving the red maple leaf. That influx had a substantial impact on a housing market already suffering from undersupply due to the pandemic-era rush to buy a home amid historically low mortgage rates.
To stem the surge of new people that, apparently, also wanted somewhere to live (go figure), the federal government began curbing immigration in 2024, and the outflow of temporary residents exceeded 660K that year. The outflow continued into 2025, resulting in Canada's first-ever population contraction — and those declining numbers have eased demand for many Canadian housing markets in 2026, especially in the GVA and GTA.
The resulting decrease in housing demand has been one factor helping to keep home price increases stable in recent months.
Still, our rapid population growth over the past few years, combined with not enough housing supply and starts to keep pace, continues to put forward pressure on Canada's future housing supply. Combined with the recent, sudden shift toward lower demand, housing starts are still in jeopardy — builders won't build if there aren't enough buyers to make it financially worthwhile.
So, we're back to the same concern — will there be enough housing to keep pace with demand, allowing Canandian home prices to grow at a more natural pace vs a spike in prices?
Federal, provincial, and city governments are furiously trying to clear the road to increase starts or boost the incentive to improve starts, but they face multiple roadblocks.
The phenomenon of established neighbourhoods resisting increased density in their own backyards (a form of NIMBYism) has become a major, chronic obstacle to building multi-dwelling housing in existing neighbourhoods that could help ease Canada's housing strain.
Calgary and Edmonton, at one point, had some success getting shovels in the ground through quickly introduced legislation that allowed 'missing middle' buildings (2-8-plexes) within established neighbourhoods. However, Calgary (and slowly, other municipalities) have recently moved to repeal those changes amid the resulting NYMBYism backlash; those repeals now threaten access to government housing funds that, ironically, were meant to help cities increase their density.
Several forces in Canada appear to be at odds, hindering the pace of creating housing inventory needed to meet current and future demand. We're not talking here about housing for low-income needs, which is also very urgent and essential — we're talking about enough housing to meet the general demands of an existing and growing population, keep Canadian home prices at more affordable levels, and avoid spikes and crashes.
Canada is down by over 5 million homes needed by 2030 (on top of annual construction). Slower housing starts threaten to keep home prices chronically elevated unless they are addressed in a reasonable way in the coming years.
The current federal government has launched a Build Canada Homes initiative to help construct approximately 500,000 new homes per year over the next decade (though the jury is out on whether it will actually happen).
Mobile, manufactured, and modular homes, installed on real property (owned by you), can significantly speed up building and move-in timelines, and reduce costs, compared to site-built homes, which depend on weather, labour, and material availability.
However, in many city centres, zoning and bylaws restrict how quickly these homes can roll in — effectively capping demand.
That zoning bottleneck, combined with financial and space constraints to go from production to installation, makes it difficult for manufacturers to scale up and fully realize time and cost efficiencies.
Easier access to capital and lending tied to real property could help this sector play a stronger role in easing Canada's housing crunch.
Read more here: How Mortgages Work for Prefabricated Homes
The prime rate dropped by another 1.0% in 2025, bringing variable and fixed mortgage rates along with it (though fixed rates have recently risen due to the Iran oil crisis, as this rate type is tied to bond-yield fluctuations rather than prime-rate movements).
Typically, lower interest rates attract buyers and boost housing demand. But an ongoing trade war with the U.S. and now higher energy prices create enough financial uncertainty that can spook both buyers and sellers.
Despite lower central bank rates, financial trepidation has kept housing activity and demand muted, leading to negative or flat home price growth in many Canadian centres over the past year, especially in higher-priced centres in BC and ON.
It remains to be seen whether Canada could still experience a recession due to trade and geopolitical disruptions, which may continue to dissuade homebuyers.
Beyond that, enough sellers would need to list to maintain a balanced market (in the short term) in a lower-interest-rate environment.
That depends on who you ask, on what side of the question they're on — trying to buy a home, sell, or refinance or renew a mortgage.
Home prices are seen through the eyes of the beholder:
For example, a sharp downturn in the condo housing market, especially in Toronto, Ontario, has left many investors underwater on home equity; some feel they are unable to sell until prices recover.
According to National Bank stats, mortgage affordability improved again in Q1 2026, with lower mortgage rates and home price declines easing the metrics for 5 of 10 Canadian centres:
BMO's economist, Robert Kavcic, recently spoke in The Globe and Mail about the positive direction he sees home affordability heading in Canada:
Use our great calculator below for an idea, then give us a shout for your numbers.
May 2026 — The three Canadian centres with the highest average MLS® home prices are:
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
May 2026 — The six Canadian centres with the lowest average MLS® home price.
We're not saying you should (or could) move there, but you can dream about how much home you'd get for the price.
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
BALANCED – The national SNLR (sales to new listing ratio) in May 2026 tightened to 49.2% from 46.2% last month.
Listings declined in May, while sales increased, tightening the national ratio, but still leaving it in balanced-market territory. Compared with last May, inventory remained below the long-term average for this time of year.
A few other details:
Why is the Canadian market balanced? National housing activity in 2026 remains balanced, as more buyers and sellers enter the market, while others hold back due to economic uncertainty stemming from rising inflation and the U.S. trade war.
Do market disparities exist in Canada? Always. Regardless of national or even provincial sales and listing averages, Canada is a pretty big country area-wise (second-largest in the world), and home shoppers and sellers can find very different market conditions depending on where they're buying or selling.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), a strong buyer's market prevails when the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) is 45% or below.
That ratio means there are typically more properties for sale than buyers, offering more choice and bargaining power — especially when placing purchase offers with conditions that protect a buyer's rights and finances.
When the SNLR falls between 45% and 65%, market conditions are considered 'balanced' in buyer demand, available listings, and sales levels. This state helps to keep prices relatively stable, often accompanied by reasonable purchase and sale terms.
The middle ground of housing competition — balanced markets can lean more towards the buyer's or seller's spectrum. And despite any prevailing national or local trends, a particular house, street or area can defy it (you know who you are).
An SNLR of 65% or higher indicates a market strongly favouring the seller.
In a seller's market, there are more buyers than sellers, and properties sell quickly, often at higher-than-listed prices, giving sellers more power to set their prices and terms of sale.
When the demand for housing exceeds supply, buyers often resort to a range of strategies, such as making bully offers, trying to win in bidding wars, or feeling pressured to forego a home inspection and make no-conditions offers.
This graphic provides a provincial snapshot of prices in Q1 2026 compared to 1, 3, and 5 years ago.
Home prices have increased in most provinces across Canada compared to 5 years ago, though some major centres, such as in BC and Ontario, have seen recent declines.
How much have Canadian home prices risen in 21 years? The average Canadian MLS®HPI composite benchmark home price has risen more than 184% since 2005.
Here are a few multi-numbered sources to keep you busy and in the know:
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We can also offer unbiased advice for first-time and next-time buyers for affordability strategies that may make the difference in owning and keeping a home in Canada.
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Continually updated. Where rates may go now and later — and what’s driving them.
This test helps ensure you can handle higher payments as an affordability buffer.
Great tips for home-buying newbies — and the best guide (ever) for download.
