Forecasting home prices and market trends from 2026 to 2029.
How might tariffs and interest rates impact Canada's home prices? What places in Canada offer better affordability? Is it a buyer's or seller's market? Here's a look at the latest trends and what they may signal.
According to CREA's latest report, Canada's national housing market continued to decline in February 2026. Average home sales, prices, and listings all dropped further compared to last month and last year.
So far, Bank of Canada policy rate cuts in the back half of 2025 haven't helped release pent-up demand in early 2026. And fixed mortgage rates are freshly higher due to a surge in bond yields.
Certainly, ongoing trade uncertainty is keeping Canadian homeownership plans in limbo. Perhaps when the seasons change, we'll see housing markets grow — unless the recently higher oil prices endure into spring.
Next CREA update on April 15, 2026
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$661,300 in [February 2026 (a decrease of 0.5% m/m from January's $657,800)
This statistic logged a 5% year-over-year decline and was 21% below the $841,300 peak MLS®HPI recorded in March 2022.
(as per MLS® HPI Aggregate Composite Benchmark, not seasonally adjusted)
Experts have their fingers crossed for a soft recovery this year — but trade and inflation uncertainties are the wild cards affecting homeownership decisions.
More home buyers and sellers moved to the sidelines at the start of 2026, with wintery weather apparently partly to blame, adding to the reasons many buyers stayed away as they wait on financial and economic clarity. Re/Max reported that home sales fell in 19 of 33 Canadian markets last year.
Some Canadian centres are seeing home prices fall, which can work in favour of home buyers looking for a deal, but not sellers who want to retain their equity accrual — or avoid selling at a loss.
Read on for what some housing experts forecast for this year and beyond.
"Housing demand is projected to gain momentum while sales stay below historical averages and prices show only modest gains after falling in 2025."
– CMHC Housing Market Outlook 2026
Note: All forecasts above are compiled from public market data and are subject to change.
Are housing forecasts for real, or are they 'Pin the Tail on the House Donkey' in predicting home sales and prices?
Housing experts can differ widely in their expectations for our national housing market. That's partly due to Canada's size, with regional differences often skewing the big picture — for example, Vancouver and Toronto's higher prices and volume of activity compared to the rest of the country.
Housing stat sources are also notoriously difficult to compare like-for-like, as different variables may be presented or available (e.g., seasonal vs. non-seasonal), exclude some markets, or rely on 'in-house' data that may not align on a national scale.
It's time to see how the 2025 forecasts stacked up! We did not break out the sparklers, but we did compare the predictions with the actual results to see who pinned it the closest. See below!
Tight home affordability in Canada has eased slightly in the last few months as variable and fixed mortgage rates, as well as home prices, have cooled from last year. However, home prices in Canada are still among the highest of the G7 countries (led by the major city centres of Vancouver and Toronto).
Here's what may help keep price growth in check to either deter demand or increase supply:
In 2023, we saw a whopping 46% increase in the number of Canadian newbies waving the red maple leaf. The federal government began curbing immigration in 2024, and the outflow of temporary residents exceeded 660K that year.
Increased tightening and outflows continued into 2025, resulting in the first-ever Canadian population contraction — and those declining numbers are likely already contributing to lower demand for some Canadian housing markets in 2026.
Still, our rapid population growth over the past few years, combined with not enough housing starts to keep pace, continues to put pressure on Canada's housing supply, which could eventually re-establish upward pressure on home prices, especially in the populous centres of Vancouver and Toronto.
Factors that might affect the pace of home building:
Federal, provincial, and city governments are furiously trying to clear the road to increase starts or boost the incentive to improve starts, but they face multiple roadblocks.
NIMBYism (not in my backyard) is another major obstacle to slapping up multi-dwelling housing in existing neighbourhoods that would ease the strain. Calgary and Edmonton had some success getting shovels in the dirt through fast-introduced legislation that allowed more 'missing middle' buildings (2-8 plexes) within established neighbourhoods. However, some centres, such as Calgary, Alberta, have repealed those changes due to neighbourhood backlash — and those repeals now threaten access to government housing funds.
Several forces in Canada appear to be at odds, hindering the pace of housing inventory needed to meet current and future demand. We're not talking here about housing for low-income needs, which is also very urgent and essential — we're talking about enough housing to meet the general demands of an existing and growing population and to keep Canadian home prices at more affordable levels.
Canada is down by over 5 million homes needed by 2030 (on top of annual construction). A slower pace of housing starts threatens to keep home prices high unless reasonably addressed in the coming years.
The current federal government has launched a Build Canada Homes initiative to help construct approximately 500,000 new homes per year over the next decade.
Mobile, manufactured, and modular homes, installed on real property (owned by you), can significantly speed up building and move-in timelines, and reduce costs, compared to site-built homes, which depend on weather, labour, and material availability.
However, in many city centres, zoning and bylaws restrict how quickly these homes can roll in — effectively capping demand.
That zoning bottleneck, combined with financial and space constraints to go from production to installation, makes it difficult for manufacturers to scale up and fully realize time and cost efficiencies.
Easier access to capital and lending tied to real property could help this sector play a stronger role in easing Canada's housing crunch.
Read more here: How Mortgages Work for Prefabricated Homes
The prime rate dropped by another 1.0% in 2025, bringing variable and fixed mortgage rates along with it (though fixed rates haven't fallen as far, tied to bond yields fluctuations rather than prime rate movements).
Typically, lower interest rates attract buyers and boost housing demand. But this time around, an ongoing trade war with the U.S. is sending shockwaves through economic channels and spooking both buyers and sellers.
Despite lower rates, the resulting financial trepidation has kept housing activity and demand muted, leading to lower or flat home prices in many Canadian centres this past year, especially in higher-priced centres in BC and ON.
It remains to be seen whether Canada could still see a recession resulting from trade disruptions, which may continue to dissuade homebuyers.
Beyond that, enough sellers would need to list to maintain a balanced market (in the short term) in today's lower-interest-rate environment.
That depends on who you ask — whether they are trying to sell their home, refinance, or renew their mortgage.
Home prices are seen through the eyes of the beholder. Many new buyers want prices to decrease so they can better afford a home, but homeowners don't want their homes to lose value relative to their mortgages for obvious equity-related reasons.
For example, a sharp downturn in the condo housing market, especially in Toronto, Ontario, has left many investors underwater on home equity, often unable to sell until prices recover.
According to National Bank stats, mortgage affordability improved again in Q4 2025, with lower mortgage rates and home price declines easing the metrics for 6 of 10 Canadian centres:
BMO's economist, Robert Kavcic, recently spoke in The Globe and Mail about the positive direction he sees home affordability heading in Canada:
Use our great calculator below for an idea, then give us a shout for your numbers.
February 2026 — The three Canadian centres with the highest average MLS® home prices are:
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
February 2026 — The six Canadian centres with the lowest average MLS® home price.
We're not saying you should (or could) move there, but you can dream about how much home you'd get for the price.
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
BALANCED – The national SNLR (sales to new listing ratio) in February 2026 tightened to 47.6% from 46.4% last month.
New supply decreased alongside sales, and the national ratio remains in balanced-market territory. Compared to February 2025, all property listings were up 3.7%, but still below the long-term average for this time of year.
A few other details:
Why is the Canadian market balanced? National housing activity in 2026 remains balanced due to economic uncertainty stemming from the U.S. trade war. Inventory levels are higher than the previous year, though with sufficient demand (sales) to maintain a balanced national market heading so far in 2026.
Is there market disparity in Canada? Always. Regardless of national or even provincial sales and listing averages, Canada is a big country (area-wise), and home shoppers and sellers can find very different market conditions depending on where they're buying or selling.
According to CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association), a strong buyer's market is when the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) is 45% or below.
That ratio means there are typically more properties for sale than buyers, offering more choice and bargaining power — especially when placing purchase offers with conditions that protect a buyer's rights and finances.
When the SNLR falls between 45% and 65%, market conditions are considered 'balanced' in buyer demand, available listings, and sales levels. This state helps to keep prices relatively stable, allowing reasonable purchase and sale terms.
The middle ground of housing competition — balanced markets can lean more towards the buyer's or seller's spectrum. And despite any prevailing national or local trends, a particular house, street or area can defy it (you know who you are).
An SNLR of 65% or higher indicates a market strongly favouring the seller.
In a seller's market, there are more buyers than sellers, and properties sell quickly and at higher prices, giving sellers more power to set their price and terms of sale.
When the demand for housing exceeds supply, buyers often resort to a gamut of strategies to snap up a house before others, such as engaging in bidding wars or feeling pressured to place no-condition offers.
This graphic offers a provincial snapshot of prices in Q4 2025 compared to 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years ago.
As you can see, home prices have increased in most provinces across Canada compared to 5 years ago, though some major centres have seen recent declines.
Want an even more interesting stat? The average Canadian MLS®HPI composite benchmark home price has risen more than 200% since 2005 (over 20 years)!
Here are a few multi-numbered sources to keep you busy and in the know:
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