Forecasting home prices and market trends from 2026 to 2029.
Tariffs, energy costs, and economic uncertainty are reshaping what Canadian home buyers and sellers can expect. Where are prices headed? Which markets offer better affordability? And is now your time to buy, sell, or wait? Here's what the data and housing experts signal for 2026 and beyond.
September 2026 – According to CREA's latest report, the national housing market shed home sales, price gains, and listings like leaves on a windy autumn day.
Higher fixed mortgage rates, impending variable-rate hikes, and ongoing headwinds from the U.S. trade and Iran conflict have grounded most housing markets as 2027 nears.
Next CREA update on November 16, 2026
$651,400 in September 2026 (a decline of 0.87% m/m from August's $657,100)
This statistic fell 3% year over year and was 22% below the [$840,400] peak MLS®HPI recorded in March 2022.
(as per MLS® HPI Aggregate Composite Benchmark, not seasonally adjusted)
Housing forecasts downgraded. Buyers and sellers resume their wait for better conditions.
Economic conditions haven't exactly supported a robust Canadian national housing market over the past couple of years. Ongoing trade uncertainties, an oil shock that won't stop, and a declining population have dampened demand and home prices, while building costs rise. Experts see declines through the rest of this year, and a question mark behind a potential 2027 recovery.
Amid the downturn, however, softer home prices can make buying a home more affordable (depending on the local market), though higher interest rates can offset that advantage and reduce how much home you qualify for.
Read on for what some housing experts forecast for this year and beyond.
"At present, [our] forecast assumes limited action by the Bank over the next year. The current consensus of interest rate forecasts is leaning towards the Bank hiking by less than markets have been pricing in.
– CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast, October 16, 2026
Note: All forecasts above are compiled from public market data and are subject to change.
Are housing forecasts for real, or are they just 'Pin the Tail on the House Donkey' in predicting home sales and prices?
Housing experts can differ widely in their expectations for our national housing market. That's partly due to Canada's size, with regional differences often skewing the big picture — for example, Vancouver and Toronto's higher prices and activity volume compared to the rest of the country.
Housing stat sources are also notoriously difficult to compare like-for-like; the focus can change depending on the data highlighted (e.g. seasonal vs. non-seasonal), exclude some markets, or rely on 'in-house' data that may not align on a national scale.
At the end of 2026, we'll (safely) break out the sparklers to compare predictions with the actual results and see who pinned it the closest.
Canada's national average home price has cooled from last year and is down about 21% from the post-pandemic peak. However, it's still among the least affordable in the G7, skewed upward by more expensive markets in major city centres, like Vancouver and Toronto.
Home prices are shaped by a constant push and pull between supply, demand, and economic conditions. Here are some of the key factors at play:
"I think that the best way to describe the housing market in general is that it's too expensive to buy, not expensive enough to build. The market is broken."
– CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal
From 2021 to 2023, a whopping 1 million newbies flocked to Canada each year, waving the red maple leaf. That influx had a substantial impact on a housing market already suffering from undersupply, driven by the pandemic-era rush to buy a home amid historically low mortgage rates.
To stem the surge of new people who, apparently, also wanted somewhere to live (go figure), the federal government began curbing immigration in 2024, and the outflow of temporary residents exceeded 660K that year. The exodus continued into 2025, and declining numbers eased demand in many Canadian housing markets in 2026, especially in the GVA and GTA.
The resulting drop in housing demand has been one factor helping to slow home price gains in recent months.
Still, rapid population growth over the past few years, combined with not enough housing supply and starts to keep pace, continues to put forward pressure on Canada's future housing supply. Plus, the recent, sudden shift toward lower demand puts housing starts in more jeopardy — builders won't build if there aren't enough buyers or if new homes aren't priced to make it financially worthwhile.
So, we're back to the same concern: will there be enough housing to keep pace with demand, allowing Canadian home prices to grow at a more natural pace and avoid another huge spike in prices?
Federal, provincial, and city governments are furiously trying to clear the road to increase starts or boost the incentive to improve starts, but they face multiple roadblocks.
The Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) estimates that construction employment would need to rise 51% over the next four years to meet the federal government's building objectives. However, domestic labour is already 'used up' at about 18%, as the industry relies more heavily on male labour, so these targets would require immigration policy adjustments to begin to fill that labour gap.
Established neighbourhoods resisting increased density in their own backyards (a form of NIMBYism) has become a major, chronic obstacle to building multi-dwelling housing in existing neighbourhoods that could help ease Canada's housing strain.
Calgary and Edmonton, at one point, had some success getting shovels in the ground through quickly introduced legislation that allowed 'missing middle' buildings (2-8-plexes) within established neighbourhoods. However, Calgary (and slowly, other municipalities) have recently moved to repeal those changes amid the resulting NYMBYism backlash; those repeals now threaten access to government housing funds that, ironically, were meant to help cities increase their density.
Several forces in Canada appear to be at odds, hindering the pace of creating the housing inventory needed to meet current and future demand. We're not talking here about housing for low-income needs, which is also urgent and essential — we're talking about enough housing to meet the general demands of an existing and growing population, keep Canadian home prices at more affordable levels, and avoid spikes and crashes.
According to the CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation), Canada needs roughly 443K housing starts per year, about double the current expected construction pace, to restore affordability by 2036. Slower housing starts threaten to keep home prices chronically elevated unless addressed in a reasonable way in the coming years.
The current federal government has launched a Build Canada Homes initiative to help construct about 500,000 new homes per year over the next decade (though the jury is out on whether that pace will actually transpire).
Mobile, manufactured, and modular homes, installed on real property (owned by you), can significantly speed up building and move-in timelines, and reduce costs, compared to site-built homes, which depend on weather, labour, and material availability.
However, in many city centres, zoning and bylaws restrict how quickly these homes can roll in — effectively capping demand.
That zoning bottleneck, combined with financial and space constraints to go from production to installation, makes it difficult for manufacturers to scale up and fully realize time and cost efficiencies.
Easier access to capital and lending tied to real property could help this sector play a stronger role in easing Canada's housing crunch.
Read more here: How Mortgages Work for Prefabricated Homes
The prime rate, now at 4.45%, is forecast to rise in Q4 2026 and in 2027 by an estimated three 0.25% increases, pulling variable rates along with it. Fixed rates have already risen due to inflation worries caused by the Iran oil crisis (among other factors), as this rate type is tied to bond-yield fluctuations rather than prime-rate movements.
Typically, lower interest rates attract buyers and boost housing demand. Rising rates do the opposite, usually dampening demand as buyers and sellers hold back, waiting for rates and economic conditions to improve. However, sometimes a rate increase sends buyers to market, hoping to make their move before rates can rise further.
It remains to be seen whether Canada could still experience a recession due to trade and geopolitical disruptions. A recession would further slow national housing markets, but at the least, could bring mortgage rates back down.
A cycle of higher mortgage rates also means more Canadian housing markets will see buyer or balanced conditions, while sellers worry about getting enough value from a sale.
That depends on who you ask, on what side of the question they're on — trying to buy a home, sell, or refinance or renew a mortgage.
Home prices are seen through the eyes of the beholder:
For example, a sharp downturn in the condo market, especially in Toronto, Ontario, has left many investors underwater on their mortgages, with many feeling unable to sell until prices recover.
According to National Bank stats, mortgage affordability improved again in Q2 2026, with lower mortgage rates and home price declines easing the metrics for 5 of 10 Canadian centres:
BMO's economist, Robert Kavcic, recently spoke in The Globe and Mail about the positive direction he sees home affordability heading in Canada:
Use our great calculator below for an idea, then give us a shout for your numbers.
September 2026 — The three Canadian centres with the highest average MLS® home prices are:
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
September 2026 — The six Canadian centres with the lowest average MLS® home price.
We're not saying you should (or could) move there, but you can dream about how much home you'd get for the price.
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
BALANCED – The September 2026 national SNLR (sales-to-new-listing ratio) eased back to 48.8% from 49.1% last month.
New listings rose 1.8% year over year but fell by the same amount from last month. Added to the sales decline, the national ratio still remains in balanced-market territory. Inventory was in line with the historical average and 1.4% above this time last year.
A few other details:
Why is the Canadian market balanced? National housing activity in 2026 remains balanced as more buyers enter the market to absorb listings, which are plentiful enough despite more sellers holding back, waiting for prices to stabilize.
Do market disparities exist in Canada? Always. Regardless of national or even provincial sales and listing averages, Canada is a pretty big country area-wise (second-largest in the world), and home shoppers and sellers can find very different market conditions depending on where they're buying or selling.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), a strong buyer's market prevails when the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) is 45% or below.
That ratio means there are typically more properties for sale than buyers, offering more choice and bargaining power — especially when placing purchase offers with conditions that protect a buyer's rights and finances.
When the SNLR falls between 45% and 65%, market conditions are considered 'balanced' in buyer demand, available listings, and sales levels. This state helps to keep prices relatively stable, often accompanied by reasonable purchase and sale terms.
The middle ground of housing competition — balanced markets can lean more toward a buyer's or seller's spectrum. And despite any prevailing national or local trends, a particular house, street or area can defy it (you know who you are).
An SNLR of 65% or higher indicates a market strongly favouring the seller.
In a seller's market, there are more buyers than sellers, and properties sell quickly, often at higher-than-listed prices, giving sellers more power to set their prices and terms of sale.
When housing demand exceeds supply, buyers often resort to strategies such as making bully offers, trying to win in bidding wars, and feeling pressured to forego a home inspection and making no-conditions offers.
This graphic provides a provincial snapshot of prices in Q3 2026 compared to 1, 3, and 5 years ago.
Home prices have increased in most provinces across Canada compared to 5 years ago, though some major centres, such as in BC and Ontario, have seen recent declines.
How much have Canadian home prices risen in 21 years? The average Canadian MLS®HPI composite benchmark home price has risen more than 179% since 2005.
Here are a few multi-numbered sources to keep you busy and in the know:
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