Forecasting home prices and market trends from 2026 to 2029.
How might tariffs and interest rates impact Canada's home prices? What places in Canada offer better affordability? Is it a buyer's or seller's market? Here's a look at the latest trends and what they may signal.
According to CREA's latest report, Canada's national housing market isn't yet warming up, according to the March numbers. Average home sales, prices, and listings all dropped further compared to last month and last year.
So far, Bank of Canada policy rate cuts in the back half of 2025 haven't helped release pent-up demand in the first quarter of 2026. And fixed mortgage rates rose in March due to a surge in bond yields tied to a sudden escalation in the Iran conflict.
Certainly, ongoing inflation and trade uncertainty are keeping Canadian homeownership plans in limbo. Perhaps when the seasons change, we'll see housing markets grow — unless the recently higher oil prices endure past spring.
Next CREA update on May 15, 2026
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$664,400 in March 2026 (a decrease of 0.5% m/m from February's $661,300)
This statistic logged a 5% year-over-year decline and was 21% below the $841,300 peak MLS®HPI recorded in March 2022.
(as per MLS® HPI Aggregate Composite Benchmark, not seasonally adjusted)
Experts have their fingers crossed for a soft recovery this year — but trade and inflation uncertainties are the wild cards affecting homeownership decisions.
Home buyers and sellers remain wary so far this year, with the war in Iran suddenly injecting higher gas prices as a new line item in household budgets. Worn down by trade uncertainty, now inflation risks are added to the mix, with homeownership decisions hinging on financial security or those trying to time the market to get a better price for their home.
Some Canadian centres saw a pickup in the last couple of weeks of March, but experts are cautious about calling a spring rush so soon. Buyers are looking for a deal, but sellers also want to retain their equity accrual or avoid selling at a loss.
Read on for what some housing experts forecast for this year and beyond.
"The timing of higher [fixed] mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year – April, May, and June – as they wait for rates to come back down.”
– CREA Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart
Note: All forecasts above are compiled from public market data and are subject to change.
Are housing forecasts for real, or are they 'Pin the Tail on the House Donkey' in predicting home sales and prices?
Housing experts can differ widely in their expectations for our national housing market. That's partly due to Canada's size, with regional differences often skewing the big picture — for example, Vancouver and Toronto's higher prices and volume of activity compared to the rest of the country.
Housing stat sources are also notoriously difficult to compare like-for-like, as different variables may be presented or available (e.g., seasonal vs. non-seasonal), exclude some markets, or rely on 'in-house' data that may not align on a national scale.
At the end of 2026, we'll (safely) break out the sparklers to compare the predictions with the actual results and see who pinned it the closest.
Tight home affordability in Canada has increased slightly in the last few weeks as fixed mortgage rates rose due to higher energy prices resulting from the Iran conflict. National average home prices have cooled from last year — however, they're still among the highest of the G7 countries (led by the major city centres of Vancouver and Toronto).
Here's what may help keep price growth in check to either deter demand or increase supply:
In 2023 alone, a whopping 46% increase in the number of Canadian newbies waving the red maple leaf had a substantial impact on the housing market that was already suffering from undersupply due to the pandemic rush to buy a home amid historically low mortgage rates.
To stem the incredible influx of new people that also wanted somewhere to live, the federal government began curbing immigration in 2024, and the outflow of temporary residents exceeded 660K that year. The outflow continued into 2025, resulting in Canada's first-ever population contraction — and those declining numbers have eased demand for some Canadian housing markets in 2026, especially in the GVA and GTA.
Still, our rapid population growth over the past few years, combined with not enough housing supply or starts to keep pace, continues to put pressure on Canada's future housing supply, which could eventually re-establish upward pressure on home prices, especially in the populous centres of Vancouver and Toronto.
Federal, provincial, and city governments are furiously trying to clear the road to increase starts or boost the incentive to improve starts, but they face multiple roadblocks.
The phenomenon of established neighbourhoods resisting increased density in their own backyards (a form of NIMBYism) has become a major, chronic obstacle to building multi-dwelling housing in existing neighbourhoods that could help ease the strain.
Calgary and Edmonton, at one point, had some success getting shovels in the dirt through fast-introduced legislation that allowed more 'missing middle' buildings (2-8 plexes) within established neighbourhoods. However, Calgary (and slowly, other municipalities) have recently moved to repeal those changes amid the resulting NYMBYism backlash; those repeals now threaten access to government housing funds that, ironically, were meant to help cities increase their density.
Several forces in Canada appear to be at odds, hindering the pace of creating housing inventory needed to meet current and future demand. We're not talking here about housing for low-income needs, which is also very urgent and essential — we're talking about enough housing to meet the general demands of an existing and growing population and to keep Canadian home prices at more affordable levels.
Canada is down by over 5 million homes needed by 2030 (on top of annual construction). Slower paces in housing starts threaten to keep home prices chronically elevated unless reasonably addressed in the coming years.
The current federal government has launched a Build Canada Homes initiative to help construct approximately 500,000 new homes per year over the next decade (though the jury is out on whether it will actually happen).
Mobile, manufactured, and modular homes, installed on real property (owned by you), can significantly speed up building and move-in timelines, and reduce costs, compared to site-built homes, which depend on weather, labour, and material availability.
However, in many city centres, zoning and bylaws restrict how quickly these homes can roll in — effectively capping demand.
That zoning bottleneck, combined with financial and space constraints to go from production to installation, makes it difficult for manufacturers to scale up and fully realize time and cost efficiencies.
Easier access to capital and lending tied to real property could help this sector play a stronger role in easing Canada's housing crunch.
Read more here: How Mortgages Work for Prefabricated Homes
The prime rate dropped by another 1.0% in 2025, bringing variable and fixed mortgage rates along with it (though fixed rates have recently risen due to the Iran oil crisis, as this rate type is tied to bond-yield fluctuations rather than prime-rate movements).
Typically, lower interest rates attract buyers and boost housing demand. But an ongoing trade war with the U.S. and now higher energy prices create enough financial uncertainty that spooks both buyers and sellers.
Despite lower central bank rates, financial trepidation has kept housing activity and demand muted, leading to lower or flat home prices in many Canadian centres this past year, especially in the higher-priced centres in BC and ON.
It remains to be seen whether Canada could still experience a recession due to trade and geopolitical disruptions, which may continue to dissuade homebuyers.
Beyond that, enough sellers would need to list to maintain a balanced market (in the short term) in a lower-interest-rate environment.
That depends on who you ask, because it's a two-sided question — depending on whether someone is trying to buy a home or sell, or refinance or renew their mortgage.
Home prices are seen through the eyes of the beholder:
For example, a sharp downturn in the condo housing market, especially in Toronto, Ontario, has left many investors underwater on home equity, often unable to sell until prices recover.
According to National Bank stats, mortgage affordability improved again in Q4 2025, with lower mortgage rates and home price declines easing the metrics for 6 of 10 Canadian centres:
BMO's economist, Robert Kavcic, recently spoke in The Globe and Mail about the positive direction he sees home affordability heading in Canada:
Use our great calculator below for an idea, then give us a shout for your numbers.
March 2026 — The three Canadian centres with the highest average MLS® home prices are:
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
March 2026 — The six Canadian centres with the lowest average MLS® home price.
We're not saying you should (or could) move there, but you can dream about how much home you'd get for the price.
Based on the MLS®HPI Composite Benchmark (not seasonally adjusted)
BALANCED – The national SNLR (sales to new listing ratio) in March 2026 tightened to 47.8% from 47.6% last month.
New supply decreased alongside sales as sellers pulled back (perhaps hoping that home prices stabilize later in the year), but the national ratio remains in balanced-market territory. Compared to March 2025, all property listings were up 1%, but still below the long-term average for this time of year.
A few other details:
Why is the Canadian market balanced? National housing activity in 2026 remains balanced due to economic uncertainty stemming from both the Iran conflict and the U.S. trade war. Inventory levels are higher than the previous year, though with sufficient demand (sales) to maintain a balanced national market heading so far in 2026.
Do market disparities exist in Canada? Always. Regardless of national or even provincial sales and listing averages, Canada is a big country (area-wise), and home shoppers and sellers can find very different market conditions depending on where they're buying or selling.
According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), a strong buyer's market prevails when the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) is 45% or below.
That ratio means there are typically more properties for sale than buyers, offering more choice and bargaining power — especially when placing purchase offers with conditions that protect a buyer's rights and finances.
When the SNLR falls between 45% and 65%, market conditions are considered 'balanced' in buyer demand, available listings, and sales levels. This state helps to keep prices relatively stable, often accompanied by reasonable purchase and sale terms.
The middle ground of housing competition — balanced markets can lean more towards the buyer's or seller's spectrum. And despite any prevailing national or local trends, a particular house, street or area can defy it (you know who you are).
An SNLR of 65% or higher indicates a market strongly favouring the seller.
In a seller's market, there are more buyers than sellers, and properties sell quickly, often at higher-than-listed prices, giving sellers more power to set their prices and terms of sale.
When the demand for housing exceeds supply, buyers often resort to a range of strategies, such as making bully offers, trying to win in bidding wars, or feeling pressured to forego a home inspection and make no-conditions offers.
This graphic offers a provincial snapshot of prices in Q4 2025 compared to 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years ago.
As you can see, home prices have increased in most provinces across Canada compared to 5 years ago, though some major centres have seen recent declines.
Want an even more interesting stat? The average Canadian MLS®HPI composite benchmark home price has risen more than 200% since 2005 (over 20 years)!
Here are a few multi-numbered sources to keep you busy and in the know:
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