Dan Eisner, True North Founder and CEO, offers industry insight on how Canadian and global factors might impact interest rates this year.
Variable mortgage rates are still paused, and fixed rates remain elevated. The Bank of Canada is watching recessionary risks, while trying to slow inflation in the wake of trade and political disruptions. Here’s my take on whether this economic tug-of-war could soon give way to lower mortgage rates.
As the founder and CEO of True North, I'm always asked about interest rates. That makes perfect sense as we've built True North Mortgage to offer the lowest mortgage rates around — with a simple, fast, client-focused service. Many of our competitors have tried to copy us ever since.
After 9 cuts of 0.25% since June 2024, the Bank of Canada's interest rate has reached its theoretical 'neutral rate' of 2.75% (from a 5.0% high) — and the debate is on whether it needs to go lower to spur economic growth.
That sets up the big question: Are we heading toward relief or tightening next?
Still caught in the eye of the tariff storm, winds are currently fanning inflation's rise. That could change if a U.S. trade agreement shifts to higher tariffs and further interest rate cuts are needed to support our economy.
At its last meeting on June 4, 2025, the Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.75% for the second decision in a row, maintaining most bank prime rates at 4.95%.
Check back for the next rate decision on July 30, 2025. Get timely updates — sign up for our newsletter.
The next Bank of Canada rate decision is just around the corner — and Dan's watching the signs that could point to another cut, a hold, or a shift in tone. Here's what he's seeing right now.
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC's) policy rate — also called the overnight rate — affects bank prime rates, which in turn move variable mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, which can move to anticipate changes to the prime rate.
June's inflation data is sending the BoC a clear message: This summer is too soon for another rate cut.
Inflationary pressures from tariffs and trade disruption continue, co-mingling with enough consumer demand to keep June's core inflation at the top of the BoC's target range of 1%-3%.
Everyone expected dire consequences when President Trump first threatened U.S. tariffs, and despite some consolation that the worst hasn't yet happened, it doesn't mean damage isn't underway, or won't show up more strongly as the months march by.
Until we have a U.S. trade agreement, markets will continue in a holding pattern. That could change quickly if higher tariffs are the result and everyone tries to calculate the potential financial and economic hit versus the multiple inflationary pressures currently at play:
Some economists now expect the BoC to hold its policy rate steady through the rest of 2025. However, it's way too early to make that call.
As always, the economic readings are 'lagging' indicators — and we're all waiting to see if tariffs and trade disruption will show more strongly as time goes by.
So far, higher inflation is trumping a cooling economy. There are signs that the damage is spreading, like an invasive plant taking over the garden, which could disrupt spending enough to bring inflation — and interest rates — down.
Market forecast for the July 30 Bank of Canada rate decision (courtesy of mortgagelogic.news.ca, July 28, 2025):
Looking ahead to the next BoC decision on September 17. Market tensions will continue to fly high, though current expectations are that the BoC may drop its rate, especially if the U.S. Fed drops its rate. There are several key readings to come before then, which we'll watch like hawks and report back here.
Sudden U.S. tariffs imposed on Canadian imports, along with Canadian retaliation on U.S. imports, introduce a different kind of inflation into the Bank of Canada rate agenda equation. Demand-pull inflation is what we're used to, which the BoC aims to curb with higher interest rates.
However, higher prices that are passed onto consumers due to 'artificially' higher input costs for businesses (such as from tariffs paid to the 'imposing' government) are seen as cost-push inflation. Raising interest rates in response to this type of inflation dilemma may lead to deeper economic damage, risking stagflation.
We break down key factors — such as inflation, jobs, and GDP — and what they currently signal for future rate moves. Want the deeper dive into these factors?
What's the most important economic factor the Bank of Canada considers? The BoC's sole job is to control inflation. It uses its policy interest rate (which directly influences bank prime rates) to keep inflation close to its 2.0% target, within a range of 1.0% to 3.0%.
Other key economic factors can help the BoC determine the path of inflation, whether it's likely to rise or fall.
For example, rising unemployment and slow GDP growth may call for a rate cut to stimulate the economy. However, rising inflation could suggest the need to pause or raise rates to cool demand and keep inflation in check.
Use these economic benchmarks to shed insight on how close or far today's numbers are:
Note: These numbers are illustrative and subject to change based on new economic realities, such as shifts in population growth.
While Dan's outlook is shaped by daily client feedback and on-the-ground trends, he also closely watches the forecasts of several economists:
As you can see, these rate predictions reflect some uncertainty driven by U.S.-induced market turmoil — but for now, they don’t diverge widely.
| Year | Market-Implied BoC Rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Mid-2025 | 2.75% | |
| 2026 to 2027 | 2.50% | |
| 2028 to 2029 | 2.75% | |
| 2030 | 3.00% |
National Bank recently noted that 36% of businesses have been affected by the trade conflict in the form of price increases, changes in demand, or supply chain disruptions.
Sound confusing? That's the sound of opposing economic forces, and why forecasting interest rates this year is a riskier business than usual.
Today, the prime rate sits around 4.95%, based on the current 2.75% BoC policy rate.
Before tariffs hit the headlines, I expected a resting Bank of Canada rate of 2.50%, with a bank prime rate settling around 4.70% (a typical spread we often see when markets stabilize).
However, U.S. tariffs, trade, and policy disruptions have thrown forecasts around wildly. U.S. tariffs are projected to cost Canadians and businesses billions, with signs already indicating a broad economic slowdown, which nudges sentiment towards rate cuts.
Yet at the same time, multiple inflationary stresses have come into play, along with tariff-induced price increases — including sufficient consumer spending to fuel inflation.
The problem is that everyone expected dire results immediately with the introduction of U.S. tariffs. However, Trump's multiple pullbacks and mind-changing eased those pressures enough in the short term, and we all know how long economic reality can take to show itself in full force — just think of the time it took for rapidly higher interest rates to cool hot inflation.
Until we see firmer expectations of a U.S. trade deal and clearer signs of slowing growth, weaker spending, and rising unemployment, the Bank of Canada is likely to hold rates steady to keep tariff- and demand-induced inflation in check.
When tariffs suddenly appeared, predictions suggested that the BoC might need another 2 to 5 cuts (0.25% each), possibly bringing the policy rate down to 1.5% and prime to 4.45% or lower. Those predictions could still come true.
But for now, higher inflation and a still-resilient economy could delay or erase those rate-cut expectations in the near term.
If the Canadian economy shows sluggish growth and inflation eases slightly, we'll likely see at least one more BoC rate cut this year, returning to my original forecast of a BoC policy rate of 2.50% by year's end.
We’ll know more once the next round of economic readings are in and we see whether a U.S. trade deal manages to take shape, offering some clarity to bank on.
The BoC had indicated (before tariffs) that its neutral rate, a point at which the economy is neither stimulated nor repressed, is pegged at around 2.75. However, rates likely need to go lower to stimulate an economy dragged down by trade turmoil.
There's always the danger that bank prime rates (led by the BoC policy rate) could increase to counter inflation, although the economic softening underway as a result of tariffs makes it unlikely for this year.
Note that bond yields, which inform fixed rates, will be pushed and pulled by a mix of forces. In the short term, political and economic volatility is likely to push yields and fixed rates up, as they respond to inflationary and global instability. If another interest rate cut is anticipated for 2025, look for a decline in yields and fixed rates.
Fixed mortgage rates will experience fluctuation between interest rate announcements. Read the fixed rate section and see forecasts for 2025 to 2027.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures the monthly change in prices (from a fixed basket of goods and services) paid by Canadian consumers. It's the most widely used measure of inflation. See 2024 CPI readings here.
Canada's headline inflation in June rose to 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May, still below the Bank of Canada's 2.0% target. But that lower reading is mainly due to the removal of the federal carbon tax.
Inflation's pace measures current increases against the same month a year ago, so 'base year' effects can skew the comparisons. The carbon tax removal is a good example. Last year, this tax resulted in price increases. This year, with the tax removed, the comparison makes prices look lower than they actually are. Also affected in this latest report are higher gasoline and durable goods prices (such as passenger vehicles and furniture).
Stripping out the volatile energy component reveals that inflation remained stuck at 2.7%. Core inflation — the average of median and trimmed measures — is also holding at 3.0%, right at the top of the Bank of Canada's target range.
What does June's inflation report mean for an interest cut this summer? The numbers suggest there's little room for the BoC to lower its police rate right now, despite growing calls from Canadians hoping for budget relief.
The Bank of Montreal chief economist, Douglas Porter, pointed to the murkiness underlying the headline rate: "core is just too sticky. And our measure of the breadth of inflation showed no improvement in the latest month."
There's ongoing debate as to whether economic cooling could help keep inflation in check as the weeks march on, and whether a possible Canada-U.S. trade deal, which could land by July 21, the next Trump deadline, might ease some of the pricing pressure ahead.
Canada's June labour market saw a significant 83,000 jobs created, which helped lower the unemployment rate to 6.9% from 7.0% in May, marking the first decrease since January 2025. Economists had expected a minor job gain and a UR tick up to 7.1%.
The stronger print comes on the back of summer hires, but it's still an encouraging economic sign amid the ongoing U.S. trade and policy chaos.
Will this labour bump be short-lived? That's highly possible, with everything economic dependent on how the U.S. trade agreement is ironed out, and whether inter-provincial and wider international trade improvement can pick up any employment slack.
It is worth noting that summer students (the demographic aged 15-24 years) continue to experience a higher unemployment rate of 17.4%, demonstrating that the underlying labour weakness hasn't disappeared.
However, for now, these numbers work against a BoC cut, not in favour of it.
In 2024, Canadian GDP grew by more than expected, with a revised annualized pace of 2.6% (real GDP Q4 growth was 0.4%, quarter-over-quarter).
But in 2025, tariff trouble is disrupting a post-pandemic recovery — how much remains to be seen.
So far this year, growth forecasts have sailed into stronger headwinds. Q1 2025 saw an unexpected GDP gain of 0.4%, matching the increase in Q4 2024, likely due to consumers and businesses attempting to get ahead of the trade war.
However, April GDP contracted by 0.1%, dragged down by sectors most affected by the ongoing U.S. trade turmoil. May and Q2 2025 results are also lining up on the negative side.
Will the negative GDP dips be enough to sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again this summer? They might, if inflation doesn't show signs of an immediate surge.
National housing sales fell again in March 2025, and listings increased slightly; home prices remained relatively stable.
Will lowering interest rates (and new mortgage rules favouring younger buyers) encourage some buyers out this spring despite the trade-induced economic turmoil? Perhaps not, if financial concerns override the spring feeling of looking for a new home — or if home prices rise from a lack of inventory.
Like it or not, our countries' economies are closely linked.
With a Trump presidency, here are some current concerns:
Here's a look at the inflation rate over the past year — now hovering around the Bank of Canada's target of 2.0% from a high of 8.1% reached in June 2022.
Total CPI (Consumer Price Index) is represented as an annual inflation rate (headline inflation), which appears in the media the most. It reflects the year-over-year price change percentage for a weighted basket of goods (including volatile ones, like gas and food).
Core inflation is closely monitored by the BoC. We show the average of trim and median, which strip out extreme price volatility to get to the 'core' of price movements.
CPIX excludes the most volatile price components and strips any effect of indirect tax changes on what's left (hence the X). The BoC stopped using this measure in 2016, though many experts still use it to gauge the 'bare' impact of price changes.
Fixed mortgage rates are steered by the Canadian bond market and (eventually) follow the movements in bond yields up or down. 5-year bond yields are the standard for setting 5-year fixed rates and are the reference in this section and blog.
Canada's 5-year bond yields have eased slightly to 3.0%, as the market speculation continues over whether tariffs will damage the economy enough to warrant further interest rate cuts, or if consumer resilience and trade tariffs will see inflation rise.
There's a stack of inflationary factors keeping upward pressure on bond yields:
On the other side of the scale:
For now, though, bond yields remain elevated. Business costs continue to rise, driven by global tensions, oil price hikes, supply chain strains, and tariff-related input pressures — all of which may soon trickle down to consumers through higher prices.
Expect lender specials to pop up or disappear quickly on specific fixed-rate terms, depending on yield movements. Lenders are closely monitoring their costs and retaining capital to address the potential for an increase in debt arrears.
If inflation continues to rise without a corresponding dip in consumer demand, current fixed rates may increase if yields remain elevated and the trend persists — 5-year fixed mortgage rates have recently risen by about 0.14%.
If a recession becomes more likely, fixed rates could eventually fall further in anticipation of further prime rate cuts.
| Year | Forecasted 5-Yr Fixed Range | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.00% – 4.60% | Current best rates are around 4.09% — modest downward pressure may emerge, but bond yields are holding back bigger drops. |
| 2026 | 3.80% – 4.40% | If inflation cools and yields ease, rates could settle lower. Still sensitive to economic and global market shocks. |
| 2027 | 3.75% – 4.25% | Long-run stability expected, but not a full return to pre-pandemic ultra-low rates. |
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The U.S. economic landscape was looking pretty strong (along with rising inflation), but Trump's tariffs and mass government firings are showing up as underlying cracks.
The fresh U.S. President Trump/billionaire Elon Musk administration has thrown substantial uncertainty into how both economies will fare as 2025 is certain to become a year to remember (or forget).
Why do we care? Economic conditions south of the border can influence factors weighed by our central bank (and drive higher prices or economic detraction here) to affect its rate decisions.
Despite the constant, distant calls of the 'recession' loon, it hasn't yet flown into our backyard. However, the recent trade disruption may finally beckon a hasty landing.
With the high-interest-rate environment so quickly imposed on Canadians to tame high inflation post-pandemic, a mild recession had been expected through the first half of 2024, which didn't materialize. Until Trump took office, Canada's growth projections were starting to look up for 2025.
Will market resilience keep our economy out of recessionary territory? Some experts expect a recessionary shock from the trade war. In time, it's hoped that Canadian businesses will adapt.
Canadian initiatives are already underway in an attempt to head off an economic blow — such as reducing inter-provincial trade barriers, reviewing restrictive government regulations that choke our productivity, and unfurling more international trade opportunities.
Before the trade disruption, our labour market and economic growth were showing signs of strength, yet household budgets are still straining under the higher prices all around.
If economic weakening accelerates, the BoC would likely drop prime rates faster (assuming that job losses and spending pull back would place downward pressure on inflation's pace), providing more budget relief when we'll likely need it most.
Stagflation, an entrenched state of high inflation coupled with a weak economy and high unemployment, is on everyone's radar. The conditions for stagflation don't currently exist, as our inflation pace isn't high enough, having come down to around 2% from over 8%, and our unemployment rate is still within the 6's range.
Those conditions could change if cost-push inflation (artificially higher consumer prices due to tariffs instead of high demand) soars, the economy weakens, and declining interest rates don't spur enough (or fast enough) rebound spending.
Fact: A recession is technically considered an economic contraction reported for at least two financial quarters in a row, but typically a pronounced and persistent period of economic decline.
Home affordability has improved slightly in 2025 due to lower interest rates and cooling home prices in some Canadian centres.
There was anticipation of a spring housing rush as prime rates eased off — however, as the trade war continues, many home buyers are still holding off on their purchases amid economic uncertainty and as higher inflation attempts to stage a comeback.
Sellers are waiting as well, though some are starting to list as patience wears thin. The result is overall less demand and higher housing inventories than in past years. Buyers with sufficient financial resources or those relocating will still seek homes and may find deals on both mortgage rates and home prices in areas where market competition remains subdued.
Read more in our Housing Market Forecast 2025-2027
And with over 1M renewals coming up in 2025, mortgage activity will (always) soldier on. According to a recent Equifax report, new mortgage originations jumped 57.7% year-over-year in Q1 2025, mostly due to renewals and refinancing.
At the very least, renewers can look to lowered rates this year to help buffer the differential between then and now rates for (hopefully) better mortgage payments than they had worried about.
Whether rates are falling or rising, your best rate and mortgage can help you better afford your home. Many Canadians are still very unaware that they don't have to stick to their bank for a mortgage, for a purchase, renewal or refinance.
First-time home buyers, especially, need expert advice to set them on a path to successful homeownership amid all these price pressures.
Variable rates are moving down and can offer instant budget savings at each rate cut versus locking into a 5-year fixed rate and watching rates drop from the sidelines. If you get nervous, you can always lock into a fixed rate without penalty (most lenders allow this mortgage move).
Waiting to see what rates will do? Consider locking into a shorter fixed rate — such as our low short-term fixed Rate Relief™ product. If this product is right for you, it can help you bridge the gap with budget relief now while allowing time to pass before deciding on a longer commitment.
Owning a home is a tremendous source of pride in Canada. I created True North to provide clients with a better mortgage experience and save them thousands with their best rate and mortgage choice.
Have questions about your mortgage or pre-approval? Give us a shout, anywhere you are in Canada. We have your best rate, expert advice and unbeatable service — with over 16,000 5-star reviews from our happy clients.
Will trade disruptions drive mortgage rates lower, even if inflation goes higher?
Find out how what penalty you might pay and when it makes sense to break.
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