Prime rates have dropped, and many Canadians are wondering whether to choose a variable over a fixed rate.
We'll help you weigh the recent mortgage rate trends, risks, and potential savings to decide if a variable rate makes sense for you this year.
Recently, more Canadians are turning to variable-rate mortgages that adjust with the prime rate. This rate comes with potential risks if rates rise, but can deliver greater savings and benefits when rates are falling or holding steady.
But should you choose it? Amid economic uncertainty resulting from U.S. trade disruption and now higher oil prices, home buyers and owners are weighing their rate choices carefully this year:
Let's explore the potential for variable-rate mortgage savings over your next term.
You're likely aware that Canada is in the midst of a U.S. trade war. Stay up to date with real-time interest and mortgage rate forecasts in our 2026-2030 Rate Forecast blog.
The prime rate is expected to hold as new uncertainty — higher oil prices resulting from a conflict in Iran that has restricted 20% of the world's oil supply — layers a heightened inflation risk on top of already delicate economic projections.
Canada's prime rate currently stands at 4.45%. Interest rate forecasts still suggest that floating rates (informed by Bank of Canada policy rate decisions) could hold last through much of 2026, with the potential for a rate hike later in 2026 if inflation heats up or even a cut if higher prices eat deeper into consumer demand.
Any forecasts, however, ALSO greatly depend on the outcome (or continued uncertainty) of U.S. trade negotiations. About 90% of goods exported to the U.S. are currently protected under the CUSMA framework (Canada-US-Mexico Agreement), which is up for review in June 2026.
Variable rates are typically lower than fixed rates on any given day (e.g. during 'normal' times versus during a pandemic fallout) and carry some 'historical' savings-weight, making them a favoured choice for less risk-averse mortgage borrowers.
Post-pandemic, this rate type increased by the equivalent of 19 rate hikes (0.25% increments) from March 2022 to June 2024 — an economic anomaly that brought rates to a 22-year high. Since then, variable rates have returned to typical levels, shifting the narrative toward the benefits of this rate type.
True North Mortgage CEO Dan Eisner agrees with many economists that the prime rate will only fall again in 2026 if Canada enters a recession, or trade or higher oil prices impact growth and unemployment rates more substantially over time.
However, the inflation risk from higher oil prices could also drive the prime rate higher, if sustained over weeks and months.
There are a lot of 'ifs' and 'ands' right now, and rate forecasts are subject to change, as economic conditions remain volatile.
When you choose a variable rate, you'll notice it's expressed as a reduction off the prime rate (e.g. P -0.85%).
This discount off prime is how lenders compete for your mortgage dollars, and it can vary among lenders. The size of a discount offered to a borrower can depend on mortgage application details, such as income source and credit score, as well as whether the mortgage is insured or uninsured.
A word of caution — a larger variable discount may hide other costs that are charged to make up for that ultra-low-rate deal, like a more expensive monthly vs. semi-annual compounded rate.
Once you lock into a variable-rate mortgage, your discount doesn't change.
Your mortgage rate will rise or fall along with the prime rate. But the discount itself remains intact.
Yes, if you haven't locked in your pre-approval rate, a lender can change its lowest advertised discount rate for a 5-year variable rate when you go to buy a home or renew your mortgage (not mid-term if you already have a mortgage).
These discount fluctuations are usually based on competition with other banks or whether tighter federal regulations will raise costs by requiring them to hold more capital, prompting them to lower their variable-rate discount.
If you get a rate hold, your discount is usually safe during the specified hold period (which can differ by lender).
Yes, today they are. But in fact, this normal spread relationship has only recently returned. When prime rates rose post-pandemic to a 22-year high between 2022 and 2024, variable rates were above fixed rates, which is an unusual state (we called it the rate upside-down).
Variable rates are usually lower than the 5-year fixed rate by a spread of 0.25 to 1.0%. During the pandemic, as the prime rate quickly lowered in response to the economic crisis, this spread increased to around 1.5%.
A 'normally' lower variable rate compared to a fixed rate is a primary reason homeowners choose this rate type, which helps them save on their monthly mortgage payments.
Here's how much you might save on monthly payments by choosing a variable rate now of 3.49% (P- 0.96%) compared to locking into a 5-year fixed rate of 4.09%:
Note: Assuming a $500K mortgage and 25-year amortization. The above numbers are for illustrative purposes only and don't include principal savings; please speak with a True North expert broker for your specific numbers. During volatile times, it may be harder to predict where interest rates might be in 5 years.
Despite the allure of the savings potential offered by a lower variable rate and riding out prime rate trends — this rate type isn't for everyone.
Set it, and forget it. Some homebuyers and owners, especially first-timers, prefer the set budget strategy (aka peace of mind) of a fixed rate.
Consider your risk preference. Prime rates (directly affected by Bank of Canada rate decisions) carry the risk of rising again if economic growth and inflation heat up, which may lead to 'rate regret' if you usually prefer the relative safety of a fixed rate.
Fixed rates are still below 5%. Historically, today's fixed rates are still considered 'non-restrictive,' assuming you're comfortable with the mortgage payment.
If you prefer a fixed rate, True North offers competitive term rates through volume discounts and access to several lenders to find the best mortgage to go with your great rate.
And just so you know, fixed rates can also face pressure from rising bond yields, and over the next few months, are likely to fluctuate within a tight range amid current trade and oil supply uncertainty. A rate hold can help protect you from those fluctuations, especially if fixed rates rise in anticipation of a prime rate hike.
In March 2026, according to True North Mortgage clients, the 5-year variable rate choice once again outdrew the others — as fixed rates recently rose in response to suddenly higher energy prices, which makes the variable rate (including discount off prime) even cheaper compared to most fixed rates:
How do these choices compare historically? During 'balanced' economic times, about 30% of clients typically choose a variable rate, about 60% opt for a 5-year fixed rate, and roughly 7% select a 3-year fixed rate.
Note: Stats include all lenders True North's clients were placed with, including our in-house CMHC-approved lender, THINK Financial.
Some may not want to lock in a 5-year fixed or variable rate amid current economic uncertainty.
A shorter term during uncertain times? Some clients prefer a shorter-term fixed rate, such as a 3-year deal, which may bring them into lower rates sooner than a 5-year rate.
Or, for those buying a home or switching lenders, we offer the lowest short-term fixed rate in Canada. Our 6-month Rate Relief™ product offers a quick budget break to help with closing costs or moving expenses.
If you have any homeowner or mortgage decisions in mind, such as a potential move or sale, or additional funds you'd like to apply toward your mortgage principal, an open variable-rate mortgage can offer the flexibility you need.
A 'closed' variable mortgage is a standard mortgage product that incurs a penalty if you need to break mid-term.
Open variable rates tend to be higher than standard variable rates because lenders must absorb the increased risk of mortgage changes.
True North Mortgage offers a No Committment™ mortgage with the lowest open variable rate in Canada. Read more about our open variable-rate product and apply online or call us to learn more.
True North Mortgage consistently offers lower variable rates on average than the competition through its in-house lender, THINK Financial — and here's the proof.
This 3rd-party stat shows that over the years, we've helped clients save more with great rates and flexible mortgage terms.
Whether you choose a variable or fixed rate through our in-house lender or another lender, our highly trained brokers provide unbiased advice, in your preferred language, for your best mortgage fit.
You only live once (unless you have nine lives like a cat or Rick Astley), so you may as well save the most on your mortgage.
We make it easy. Our expert brokers offer you exceptional 5-star service, along with your guaranteed best rate and the right mortgage product for your needs, regardless of whether your details are straightforward or more complex.
We can help with your rate decisions in 2026 and beyond — anywhere you are in Canada.
Which rate type works best for you, variable or fixed? Some pros and cons to help you decide.
Continually updated. Where rates may go now and later — and what’s driving them.
It's a rough sea for rates, as higher oil prices ripple further than you think.
