What to expect for mortgage rates in 2026 to 2030

What's Next for Rates? Dan's Take

The next Bank of Canada rate decision is coming up — and Dan's watching the signs that could point to another cut, a hold, or a shift in tone. Here's what he's seeing right now.

Will the next Bank of Canada move be a cut or a hike?

The Bank of Canada’s (BoC's) policy rate, also called the overnight rate, affects bank prime rates, which in turn move variable mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, which can move to anticipate changes to the prime rate.

Markets and opinions keep shifting on which Bank of Canada move is next expected — and it's no wonder, given the mixed signals of emerging data and influential 'events.' Now back on ice, at least, are potential rate hikes, which had suddenly entered the Canadian interest rate conversation a few weeks ago.

The December 2025 inflation report showed a month-over-month headline increase, though not out of line, given that last year's GST Holiday (mid-December to mid-February) is skewing the readings. Overall, core inflation is down (if you get groceries, you may not agree, but if you get gas, you might), which is in line with the BoC's expectations that inflation will remain moderate over the next few months, helping to cool any talk of rate hikes for now.

That doesn't mean anyone truly knows where rates will go by the end of 2026, as we all try to find hints of clarity amid the upheaval in U.S. trade relations.

One thing most do agree on, including myself, is that the two recent BoC policy rate cuts may drive 'enough' economic recovery while uncertainty continues. It's possible there may be enough heat generated to warrant a policy rate increase towards the end of 2026, if U.S. trade negotiations take a tempered approach (on both sides).

Plus, some consider the current policy rate, which sits at the bottom end of the neutral range, too high relative to curve projections (i.e. where interest rates are expected to be over the long term), which is another underlying reason some experts see a rate hike in the long view.

Here's the big 'but.' There's no mistaking that our economy has been adversely affected by the trade and policy turmoil this year, and it may continue to deepen as time goes by. But the BoC is unlikely to make another rate adjustment amid the unknowns, and the next move could just as easily be another cut.

Here's why interest rates may be on hold for a while:

1. Inflation is a persistent concern amid trade risks. Despite the December headline and core inflation showing moderation, economists believe significant pressures remain. Two recent rate cuts could fuel spending and demand alongside tariff-related price pressures. If you recall what we went through (skyrocketing rates) to get inflation back to target from 8.1% (reached in June 2022), the BoC is cautious about going too low through this period of uncertainty on the heels of aggressive policy rate hikes, then cuts.
   
2. Reduced population growth could reflect a lower unemployment rate. Fewer people competing for jobs means less labour market slack and less motivation to change interest rates.
   
3. The BoC has indicated that it can only go so far in supporting an economy dealing with trade rebalancing. Lower rates can help businesses and individuals access cheaper debt to stay afloat or even invest — but that stimulus has its limits. Establishing new trade and business relationships, investing in infrastructure, reducing taxes, creating national versus provincial standards, and deregulating in areas to increase output can be more effective means of mitigating the economic downturn. And, those initiatives will require government spending, which is inflationary and works against rate cuts.
   
4. Uncertainty over U.S. trade and relations. It's unlikely that Canadian exports will see the same outcome as the last CUSMA (Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement) renegotiation, and many are bracing for a different trade reality this time around. Until that reality crystallizes, holding rates steady reflects a long-standing policy principle: stay measured when uncertainty is high.

Dire consequences were envisioned when President Trump first threatened U.S. tariffs back in January 2025. Despite some consolation that the worst hasn't yet happened, there's still plenty of nervousness about what may be on the horizon.

It's not all doom and gloom — rates are freshly lower. Many Canadians could eventually see more relief on their payments and renewal rates (now much lower than projected a year ago), as well as improved home affordability (if national home prices remain stable).

Job creation, improved consumer confidence, and increased business growth and investment could all eventually result from a BoC policy rate that now sits at the bottom of its neutral range.

Will the BoC cut its rate on March 18, 2026?

Courtesy of mortgagelogic.news, February 2, 2026:

• 25 bps cut: 2% market odds
• No change: 98% market odds

*60% is considered the magic number in calling the rate-decision odds

Stay tuned!

Cut, pause, or hike? How the latest economic readings predict where rates may go next.

We break down key factors, such as inflation, jobs, and GDP, and what they currently signal for future rate moves. Want an even deeper dive into the factors? Click here

• INFLATION (MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR) – PAUSE
  December 2025's CPI (Canadian Price Index) report came in above expectations at 2.4% (prior reading was 2.2%), largely due to last year's GST Holiday, which is helping some price accelerations look higher this year. With energy prices stripped out, inflation sits at 3.0% (which is higher than the BoC would prefer), but core inflation (average of median and trim measures) eased to 2.6% from last month's 2.8% — which will help relieve rate hike pressure for now, despite the headline m/m increase of 0.2% (next reading Feb 16)
  
• LABOUR MARKET – PAUSE
  Canada's December 2025 labour market rebounded (in the wrong direction), with a 0.3% rise in the unemployment rate from 6.5% last month to 6.8% and the creation of only +8,200 jobs, with experts nodding in agreement that this 'correction' in the rosy labour picture painted over the past few months was overdue, but still not enough to bring the BoC to consider another rate cut (next reading Feb 6)
  
• WAGES – PAUSE
  November's average wage growth decreased to 3.4% from last month's 3.6%, a welcome sign for inflation watchers (next reading Feb 6)
  
• ECONOMIC GROWTH – SHAKEY PAUSE
  November 2025 real GDP came in flat, when 0.1% growth was expected; December is projected to increase 0.1%; and adding in the October 0.3% decline, so far, Q4 2025 projections are pointing to a -0.5% annualized pace (Dec and Q4 reading on Feb 27)
  
• BOND YIELD MARKET – PAUSE
  The Canadian 5-year bond yield is holding in the 2.9% range following an onslaught of geopolitical events, and stark warnings of fast-climbing fiscal debt in the U.S.; expect continued bond market volatility in a tight range as Canada waits on U.S. trade policy developments, and amid market reactions to emerging national and global factors

What's the most important economic factor the Bank of Canada considers? The BoC's sole mandate is to control inflation. It uses its policy interest rate (which directly influences bank prime rates) to keep inflation close to its 2.0% target, within a 1.0% to 3.0% range.

Other key economic factors can help the BoC determine the path of inflation, whether it's likely to rise or fall.

For example, rising unemployment and slow GDP growth may call for a rate cut to stimulate the economy. However, rising inflation may indicate the need to pause or raise rates to curb demand and keep inflation in check.

What economists predict for interest rates (2026-2030)

While Dan's outlook is shaped by experience, client feedback, and lender decision points in addition to real-time trends, he also closely watches the forecasts of several economists:

• National Bank expects the Bank of Canada policy rate to remain at 2.25% through Q3 2026, rise to 2.75% in Q4 2026, and remain at that level through 2027.
• TD Economics expects the BoC to keep its policy rate at an average of 2.25% through to at least 2031.
• Scotiabank now forecasts the BoC will hold at 2.25% for the first few months of 2026, then raise it to 2.75% by the end of 2026, and hold at that level until the end of 2027, while warning that tariff‑related uncertainty may delay or reset this path.
• CIBC Economics predicts the BoC policy rate will remain at 2.25% until the end of 2026.
• RBC now expects the BoC rate to remain at 2.25% until the end of 2026.
• BMO Capital Markets has forecast the BoC rate to remain at 2.25% through 2026, with a hike possible in 2027.
• Desjardins expects the BoC to be done with rate cuts in this cycle, with a potential hike in Q4 2026 to 2.5% and another hike in 2027 to 2.75% (with its rate still in the neutral range).
• Capital Economics predicts the BoC policy rate of 2.25% will hold until CUSMA is renegotiated, rather than being raised in late-2026 as some anticipate.
• Oxford Economics predicts that the BoC rate will hold at 2.25% into 2026.
• Recent market-based forecasts expect the BoC rate to remain at 2.25% into early 2026, then rise to 2.50% by the end of 2026 and again to 2.75% in 2027.

Please note: The above rate forecasts are subject to change.

As you can see, expert rate predictions often mention future uncertainty driven by U.S.-induced market turmoil. Additionally, potential rate hikes, rather than cuts, have been incorporated into some long-range forecasts.

Will rates rise or fall this year? Dan's closer look. 

Trade uncertainty has pushed rates lower — but there's not much runway left.

"The U.S. trade war has brought immediate changes for Canadian businesses, and when rules change that quickly, the response or counteractions take time, even years." – Dan Eisner, True North CEO

Today, the prime rate sits around 4.45%, based on the current BoC policy rate of 2.25%. The latter is about one policy rate cut lower than I had predicted in mid-2025.

With recent economic indicators showing moderate strength relative to U.S. trade disruptions (despite some hard-hit sectors, such as steel and aluminum), the BoC policy rate has little room to fall below current levels — though the outcome will depend on the resolution of U.S. trade negotiations.

The overnight benchmark rate (aka the BoC rate) has declined by 2.75% since June 2024. There is likely sufficient economic resilience, combined with government support in the form of support packages and infrastructure spending, along with inflationary pressures (which government support will exacerbate), to prevent rates from hitting rock bottom this time around.

Dan's rate prediction for 2026.

I expect the Bank of Canada's policy rate to remain at 2.25% for the next few months.

When tariffs entered the scene earlier this year, some rapid-fire forecasts predicted a drop to 1.5% on the policy rate and a prime rate of around 3.70%. Never say never — those forecasts could still play out.

However, with another 0.50% rate drop this fall, the BoC has turned hawkish, indicating that it prefers its 'neutral' rate to work through the economy; it takes 12 to 18 months for the effects of a rate change to fully materialize.

The risk is cutting too far now and overshooting the runway, injecting stimulus that increases demand too quickly, resulting in undersupply, and putting inflation back on a path to take off again.

Another cut (to 2.0%, which would place most bank prime rates at 4.20%) becomes more likely only if trade talks stall, CUSMA gives way to broader tariffs on more goods, and Canada's economy enters a recession. (Or, less probable but still in the realm of possibility, if the global economy takes a sudden downturn due to geopolitical events, the knock-on effects of spiralling U.S. debt, or an AI stock collapse.)

As always, my forecast may change when (if?) the trade clouds part and the trajectory becomes clearer.

What is the BoC's current neutral rate range?

The Bank of Canada's published neutral rate range, which estimates the rate position that neither stimulates nor constrains economic activity, is 2.25% to 3.25%.

The BoC rate is now at the low end of that range, and the central bank may decide to dip its interest-rate vehicle into stimulative territory or raise it to curb conditions that could push inflation higher.

If the economy shows greater weakness than expected, even a rate in the neutral range can feel restrictive, which is why the BoC frames its policy stance as either supportive or restrictive.

Is there a danger that the prime rate could increase?

There's always the risk that bank prime rates (led by the BoC policy rate) could rise to counter inflation. However, both the economic softening from tariffs and trade disruptions and recent moderate inflation readings make it unlikely for at least the first few months of 2026.

What about fixed mortgage rates?

Note that bond yields, which inform fixed rates, are affected by a mix of forces.

In the short term, political and economic volatility can cause yields and fixed rates to fluctuate in response to emerging data or global instability. If another interest rate cut is anticipated, expect yields and fixed rates to trend down ahead of a move, or to trend up if a rate hike is expected.

Under current conditions, fixed mortgage rates are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range between interest rate announcements, having already decreased relative to the current prime rate. Read the Fixed Rate section, plus view forecasts for 2026 to 2030

Let's dive deeper into the latest economic numbers.

Why is Canada's inflation higher in December 2025?

In Canada's latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, headline inflation in December unexpectedly rose to 2.4% from 2.2%, apparently due to base-year effects from last year's GST holiday (spanning from mid-December 2024 to mid-February 2025), which reduced prices relative to this year.

The increase is despite gas prices dropping by almost 14% month over month, thanks to a global oversupply of crude oil. It's noteworthy, however, that overall grocery prices rose again by 5.0%, driven by a 30% increase in coffee prices and a 16% rise in beef prices.

Stripping out the volatile energy component, the remaining CPI baskets rose to 3.0%. However, core inflation (the average of median and trimmed measures) fell to 2.6% from last month's 2.8%, a positive sign that inflation is moderating.

The latest inflation report underscores the Bank of Canada's estimate that inflation will likely remain within target (or near target), despite risks and economic instability.

Economic drag from trade disruptions and a soft economy should offset other price pressures, which may allow the BoC to leave its policy rate unchanged as the Fall 2025 rate cuts work through the economy.

At the very least, this report eases the pressure of introducing a rate hike, for now.

Is Canada's labour market weakening in late 2025?

December 2025's labour market numbers moved more in line with economists' expectations — a 'better grasp on reality' according to one expert — with a rise in the unemployment rate from 6.5% to 6.8% (0.1% above expectations), creeping up closer to the 7.1% high seen this past summer.

The rise in the number of people seeking work compared to last month wasn't due to an increase in layoffs, which remained in line with past periods. Instead, the labour slack is likely due to businesses remaining in 'wait' mode for both hiring and investment.

Fewer jobs were created, just 8,200 compared to November's 54,000 surprise addition, though with more full-time positions logged, a shift from a part-time focus recorded over the past few months.

So far, however, the second half of 2025 appears to have shown some resilience against the trade turmoil. According to the National Bank, the 180K cumulative jobs added from September to November 2025 is 'a sequence in the Canadian job market only seen in 2002.' Trade-impacted sectors, such as steel, aluminum, lumber and autos, which are very important to Canada's economy, are being hit hardest by layoffs, with the spread to other sectors less pronounced.

Lowered immigration targets — which could bring population growth to near zero in 2026 and 2027 — may result in the appearance of 'improving' labour numbers going into the new year.

Uncertainty will persist until a new U.S. trade agreement is announced (or the old CUSMA is left mostly intact). But the Bank of Canada won't lower or raise its policy rate as the labour market volatility continues.

How is Canada's economic growth being affected by trade disruption in late 2025?

Here's how GDP in 2025 has shaped up so far, and it reflects the rollercoaster ride we all feel:

• Q1 2025 saw an unexpected real GDP gain of 0.4% (annualized growth of 1.6%), matching the increase in Q4 2024, likely due to consumers and businesses trying to get ahead of the U.S. trade war.
• Q2 2025 was a recessionary quarter: a 0.2% contraction in real GDP and -1.6% annualized growth, a significant decline from the growth pace recorded in Q1.
• Q3 2025 unexpectedly grew to an annualized pace of 2.6% (0.5% real GDP growth), though substantially buoyed by outsized government military spending coinciding with a substantial drop in imports (usually subtracted from exports when calculating Gross Domestic Product)
• Q4 2025 may show another contraction.

Update December 2, 2025: Statistics Canada recently revised its GDP data for 2022 to 2024, saying that the economy expanded 1.7% more than thought for those three years.

Is the threat of a recession reappearing?

Possibly — and the late-2025 data shows how quickly Canada’s economic outlook can turn. From a more hearty annualized growth pace of 2.6% in Q3 2025 (0.5% real GDP growth, following the 0.3% decline in Q2), the economy now appears headed for a Q4 slowdown — potentially into negative territory.

The heartier growth in Q3 was not broadly driven by consumer momentum. It was largely the result of a sudden spike in government military spending combined with a tangible drop in imports (which are usually subtracted from exports when calculating GDP, aka gross domestic product).

Meanwhile, household consumption — one of the clearest signals of economic heat — fell by 0.4%, its weakest reading since the pandemic.

Now, the Q4 2025 GDP projections have shifted the tone back to sullen. So far, Q4 is on track for -0.5% annualized growth, with October GDP falling by 0.3%, November coming in flat (missing expectations for modest growth of 0.1%), and December is tracking near 0.1% (if that holds).

Even if the year stays in positive territory overall (the Bank of Canada has projected economic growth of 1.3% for 2025), a negative Q4 indicates the economy is sliding rather than expanding into 2026. One weak quarter isn’t a recession (two quarters in a row is a technical one), but it is a warning.

With trade disruption dragging some key sectors, how much would it take for another quarter of contraction to appear? And yet, efforts to knock down interprovincial trade barriers may offer a pathway to sustained GDP growth, potentially bringing real GDP growth to 7.0%, according to the International Monetary Fund. That seems pretty optimistic, but if it works, who are we to complain?

Regardless, last year's GDP readings reinforce the Bank of Canada's caution and projections that it will hold its rate for a time, as it seeks concrete and sustained indications of weakening before making another rate cut in 2026.

How is economic volatility affecting Canada's housing market in late 2025?

National housing sales and home price averages declined again in December 2025, with year-over-year sales down by 2.7% and the MLS®HPI composite benchmark price by 4.0% (not seasonally adjusted). In 2025, the composite benchmark price declined by 2.7% compared to 2024.

Many buyers and sellers remained on the sidelines during a turbulent economic and political year. Some are expected to come off the sidelines, perhaps out of necessity or simply because more deals are available in markets that are usually higher-priced, such as those in Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver. Others may be buying before demand picks up in lower-priced, higher-value markets, such as those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

With mortgage rate levels considered non-restrictive (having declined significantly over the past two years), housing analysts expect a more robust Spring 2026 buying season than last year. However, ongoing economic and trade uncertainty, along with moderate inflation, may weigh on households and continue to inhibit markets until a more sustained recovery builds in 2027.

Read more here: Housing Market Forecast (2025-2029)

How is the U.S. economy influencing Canada's interest rate outlook?

Like it or not, our countries' economies are closely linked.

With a Trump presidency, here are some current concerns:

• Geopolitical developments due to recent U.S. maneuvers and demands could damage the global economy.
• U.S. data sources, under political pressure, are giving some economists reason for concern about whether they're offering an unbiased read on the U.S. economy.
• U.S. trade policies are causing supply and demand shocks, leading to price hikes that are slowly being passed on to consumers in both countries.
• Trade disruptions and higher U.S. tariffs on certain Canadian imports are injecting significant uncertainty for Canadian companies and consumers, interrupting planning, hiring, investment, and spending decisions.
• Immigration issues between the two countries may further diminish our labour productivity.
• The interest rate differential between the two central banks is 2.0%, which is pressuring input prices.
• Proposed U.S. taxes (section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) on Canadian investments and companies could have a significant impact on our economy.
• Markets are nervous about the decline of the U.S. dollar, which "can also make investing in Canada less attractive if (the Canadian dollar) is less undervalued.” (Financial Post, Jan. 29, 2026)
• U.S. government debt is ballooning — current U.S. debt interest payments exceed the defence budget — and tariff revenue is $100B less than expected so far.

When will fixed rates drop?

Fixed mortgage rates are steered by the Canadian bond market and (eventually) follow the movements in bond yields up or down. 5-year bond yields are the standard for setting 5-year fixed rates and are the reference in this section and blog.

An economy held back by trade, while inflation risks linger.

Canada's 5-year bond yield is holding around 2.9% following the deflated November 2025 GDP reading, recent geopolitical events, reports of ballooning U.S. debt, overstatement of the revenue the U.S. is collecting from tariffs, the increasing U.S. trade deficit (exporting less and importing more, despite tariffs imposed to push the opposite), and the declining U.S. dollar. (We could go on, but that's plenty to digest.)

Canada's tepid economic growth, continued moderate inflation readings, and a(nother) recent pessimistic Canada Business Outlook report have eased pressure on yields, as a Bank of Canada rate move isn't expected in the near term.

Until our nation reaches a trade agreement with the U.S., no one really knows how the economy and bond markets will react. For now, it's one surprise economic reading at a time. With no Bank of Canada rate cut in the immediate future, yields are unlikely to enter a sustained downward trend unless signs of deeper economic softening gain momentum.

Factors placing downward pressure on yields, which could keep fixed mortgage rates from rising:

• Despite the resilience in the job market, a recent BoC Business Outlook Survey indicates stifled business hiring intentions and investment
• Mixed economic readings coming out of the U.S
• Projections of 0.5% annualized growth at the conclusion of Q4 Canadia nGDP reporting
• Ongoing U.S. trade threats that may impact more sectors, or deepen the impact on those already affected
• Cautious concern over an AI bubble developing in the stock market
• Geopolitical events that could destabilize world economies

Inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty could help keep yields aloft:

• Recent rate cuts in both Canada and the U.S. may fuel demand and inflation
• Continued and additional U.S. tariffs and supply chain disruptions are still raising company input prices
• Government debt is forecast to pile up on both sides of the border
• Some businesses expect to pass along tariff and trade costs to consumers over the next few months
• Ongoing U.S. trade threats (a double-edged sword — potential for declining GDP and increasing inflation)

Will bond yields react in real time, or remain somewhat stable (aka a big yawn) amid ongoing uncertainty?

Will fixed rates fall soon?

Fixed mortgage rates are likely to hold for a while, though lender deals may pop up depending on the prevailing bond yield mood. But volatile economic conditions and geopolitical drama will keep markets in the uncomfortable 'reactionary' zone.

Fixed rates may increase slightly if bond yields rise again (e.g., due to inflationary pressures or signs of economic growth). If yields ease (e.g. due to signs of inflation or economic cooling), the 5-year fixed rate may drop slightly if the trend holds.

It's likely to be a tight rollercoaster for the next while, or at least until we see some clarity on U.S. trade.

Can the U.S. economy affect rate hikes here?

Yes. The U.S. economy matters for Canadian rate decisions.

Why it matters, briefly:

• Trade and prices. Strong U.S. demand and tariffs can change import and export prices here, which feeds into Canada's inflation readings.
• Policy and capital flows. If the Fed loosens while the BoC holds, capital may shift toward Canadian assets, pushing yields downward and weakening the loonie, which can raise import inflation.
• Market spillovers. U.S. growth, fiscal moves, or political uncertainty can change global bond yields and risk premiums, and these moves can show up in Canadian fixed mortgage rates.

Bottom line: A hotter U.S. economy, or U.S. Fed policy rate tightening, tends to push Canadian yields and rates up, while a U.S. slowdown can make it easier for the Bank of Canada to cut its benchmark interest rate.

Will Canada see a recession?

Canada's economy in 2025 has, so far, skirted technical recession territory, walking the line to potentially eke out 1% growth for the year — though Q4 2025 GDP numbers are still being gathered.

Following the sudden U.S. trade disruption beginning in early 2025, a mild recession was forecast for the second half of 2025; however, recent data indicate that the economy is still holding the line.

Will market resilience keep Canada out of recessionary territory? Canada isn't out of the recessionary woods until more is known about how the U.S. trade agreement and CUSMA (Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement) will be settled. Whatever the fallout, it's hoped that Canadian businesses will adapt and that consumers will have sufficient financial resilience to weather the trade storm.

Keep in mind that a recession can hit Canadians the hardest in the sectors most affected by trade disruption – and whether the country is skirting the line between contraction and growth won't matter to them if they've lost their job.

To counteract the trade chaos, Canadian initiatives are already underway to mitigate the ongoing impact — including reducing inter-provincial trade barriers, investing in energy and production infrastructure, reviewing restrictive government regulations that hinder productivity, and expanding international trade opportunities.

A recession would bring mortgage rates down faster.

If economic weakness accelerates, the BoC would likely lower its policy rate further (assuming that job losses and spending pullbacks would place downward pressure on inflation), providing more budget relief when we'll likely need it most.

Is stagflation a possible economic outcome?

Stagflation, an entrenched state of high inflation coupled with a weak economy and high unemployment, is on everyone's radar. The conditions for stagflation don't currently exist because our inflation pace isn't high enough, having decreased to around 2% from over 8%, and our unemployment rate is still well below 8%.

Conditions could change if inflation runs higher while the economy weakens, and lower interest rates aren't supporting enough (or fast enough) rebound spending.

Is mortgage activity picking up in late 2025?

Home affordability has improved slightly in 2025 due to lower interest rates and cooling home prices in some Canadian centres.

An expected national spring rush didn't materialize. The summer months saw a pickup in activity, with cooling again as year-end approaches.

The recent Bank of Canada rate cuts appear to have sparked renewed interest — we observed a significant boost in mortgage inquiries since the September and October 2025 rate announcements.

After months of waiting for clarity on the U.S. trade disruption and its impact on interest rates, the rate drops likely spurred some Canadians to act, chasing mortgage-rate and home-price deals amid (regionally specific) subdued local market competition.

That activity boost includes those with an upcoming renewal, eager to see how the recent prime rate cuts have improved their chances of a better rate for their next term.

With over 1.3M renewals expected in 2026 alone, a recent Equifax report shows that over 28% of homeowners are switching to a better deal, up about 46% from a year ago (according to a Mortgage Professionals Canada survey).

With U.S. trade and economic uncertainty continuing into early 2026, the expectation is for a stronger Spring 2026 housing market than in 2025, though that prediction depends heavily on how Canadian households view their financial prospects in the year ahead.

Read more in our Housing Market Forecast 2025-2029

Dan's mortgage rate advice for 2026?

Use an expert broker to get your best rate and mortgage — if you really want to save more.

Whether rates are falling or rising, your best rate and mortgage can help you better afford your home. Many Canadians are still unaware that they don't have to stick with their bank for a mortgage, purchase, renewal, or refinance.

• Shop around. You don't have to get a mortgage with your bank — and doing so may result in paying a higher rate.
• Use an expert broker, preferably a highly trained, salaried, non-commissioned True North broker. You'll get expert, unbiased advice (in your preferred language) from a broker who puts you first.
• Hold your rate. Hold or lock in your rate with us to protect your budget from rate increases while you make home-buying or mortgage decisions.

First-time home buyers, especially, need expert advice to set them on a path to successful homeownership amid all these price pressures.

Prime rates may not have much more room to decline, but a variable rate can still offer savings.

A 5-year variable rate is currently lower than fixed mortgage rates. However, with prime rates likely on hold for the next few months, some homeowners may not want to stomach the risk if they think variable rates will rise again during their term.

A variable-rate mortgage offers more flexibility for watching the market — and you can typically change to a fixed-rate term penalty-free if you get nervous about where rates may be headed (check with your lender).

Recently, we've seen many of our clients choose a variable rate or short-term fixed rate, such as a 2- or 3-year fixed rate more often over the popular 5-year fixed.

If our unique 6-month fixed Rate Relief™ product is right for you, it can help you bridge the gap with budget relief now, giving you time to consider a longer commitment later.

Trying to time your decision? Keep in mind that fixed rates will remain volatile within a tight range amid trade uncertainty, rising or falling in tandem with the bond yield market. And variable-rate discounts off prime may change. Ask your expert True North broker about holding your rate while you decide.

Owning a home is a tremendous source of pride in Canada. I created True North Mortgage to deliver a better mortgage experience and save clients thousands by securing their best possible rate along with a more flexible mortgage for long-term savings.

Have questions about your mortgage or pre-approval? Give us a shout, anywhere you are in Canada. We have your best rate, expert advice and unbeatable service — with over 17,000 5-star reviews from our happy clients.