What to expect for mortgage rates in 2025-2027

What's Next for Rates? Dan's Take

The next Bank of Canada rate decision lands this fall — and Dan's watching the signs that could point to another cut, a hold, or a shift in tone. Here's what he's seeing right now.

Why did the Bank of Canada pause interest rates again on July 30?

The Bank of Canada’s (BoC's) policy rate  — also called the overnight rate — affects bank prime rates, which in turn move variable mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, which can move to anticipate changes to the prime rate.

The central bank outlined three reasons it kept rates on hold this summer: Inflationary pressures from tariffs and trade disruption, economic resilience despite the existing tariffs, and continued U.S. trade uncertainty.

Everyone expected dire consequences when President Trump first threatened U.S. tariffs, and despite some consolation that the worst hasn't yet happened, it doesn't mean damage isn't underway, or won't show up more strongly as the months march by.

Until we have a U.S. trade agreement, stress from uncertainty will continue to hold rates higher. That could change quickly if higher tariffs are the new reality and everyone tries to calculate the potential financial and economic hit versus the multiple inflationary pressures currently at play:

• A newly elected federal government is currently on track to increase spending, especially if more sectors need support
• Tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are making their way onto shelves in the form of higher prices
• Bond markets are nervous about the increasing government debt on both sides of the border, which can lead to higher interest rates
• Energy costs are rebounding, pushing up business and consumer costs

Some economists now expect the BoC to hold its policy rate steady through the rest of 2025. However, it's way too early to make that call.

As always, the economic readings are 'lagging' indicators — and we're all waiting to see if tariffs and trade disruption will show more strongly as time goes by.

So far, higher inflation is trumping a cooling economy. There are signs that the damage is spreading, like an invasive plant taking over the garden, which could disrupt spending enough to bring inflation — and interest rates — down.

Market forecast ahead of today's Bank of Canada rate decision (courtesy of mortgagelogic.news.ca, July 28, 2025):

• 25 bps cut: 8% market odds
• No change: 92% market odds

Looking ahead to the next BoC decision on September 17.

Market tensions will continue to fly high, though current expectations are that the BoC may drop its rate, especially if the U.S. Fed drops its rate.

There are several key readings to come before then, including a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) report on July 31, 2025, which should help the central bank decide on a more definitive interest rate path as fall approaches — one that leans hawkish (restrictive rate path to control inflation) or dovish (lowering rates to support economic growth).

Stay tuned!

Cut, pause, or hike? How the latest economic readings predict where rates may go next.

We break down key factors — such as inflation, jobs, and GDP — and what they currently signal for future rate moves. Want the deeper dive into these factors?

• INFLATION (MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR) – PAUSE
  June's CPI (Canadian Price Index) shows Canada's headline inflation rose to 1.9% (up from 1.7% in May); with energy stripped out, it's still 2.7%, unchanged from last month; core inflation (average of median and trim) also remains stuck at 3.0% — leaving the BoC with little room to cut rates (next reading Aug 19) 
  
  
• LABOUR MARKET – PAUSE
  Surprise! Canada's June labour market numbers show an unexpectedly stronger gain of 83K jobs, mainly fuelled by summer part-time hires and the wholesale and retail trade sector; the unemployment rate also dropped to 6.9% (which is still high, mind you) from May's 7.0%, the first decrease since January 2025 (next reading Aug 8)
  
  
• WAGES – PAUSE
  May's average wage growth dropped to 3.2% from last month's 3.4%, moving in the right direction, but this factor continues to outpace inflation as trade disruption thwarts expectations of lower inflation on the horizon, which feeds into workers demanding more in wage settlements (next reading Aug 8)
  
  
• ECONOMIC GROWTH – CUT
  April 2025 GDP declined by 0.1% following 0.2% March growth, but experts are already eyeing a May and Q2 2025 contraction (May reading on Jul 31)
  
  
• BOND YIELD MARKET – PAUSE
  The Canadian 5-year bond yield is holding around 3.0% after the BoC's 3rd policy rate pause, amid continued U.S. trade uncertainty, and with inflationary pressures pushing back, such as higher tariff-induced prices, increased government spending on both sides of the border, U.S. debt troubles, and global conflict and weather events

What's the most important economic factor the Bank of Canada considers? The BoC's sole job is to control inflation. It uses its policy interest rate (which directly influences bank prime rates) to keep inflation close to its 2.0% target, within a range of 1.0% to 3.0%.

Other key economic factors can help the BoC determine the path of inflation, whether it's likely to rise or fall.

For example, rising unemployment and slow GDP growth may call for a rate cut to stimulate the economy. However, rising inflation could suggest the need to pause or raise rates to cool demand and keep inflation in check.

What economists expect for BoC Rates (2025-2027)

While Dan's outlook is shaped by daily client feedback and on-the-ground trends, he also closely watches the forecasts of several economists:

• TD Economics expects the BoC to gradually cut its policy rate to the estimated neutral of 2.25% by mid‑2025, with rates holding around that level into 2027 as economic growth remains subdued
• Scotiabank now forecasts the BoC will hold the key rate at 2.75% for the rest of 2025, then ease by 0.75 % in 2026, bringing it to about 2.0%, while warning that tariff‑related uncertainty may delay or reset this path.
• CIBC Head Economist Benajim Tal expects the BoC policy rate will be lowered to 2.5% or 2.25% by the end of 2025 or early 2026, holding at 2.25% into 2027
• Recent market-based forecasts expect the BoC rate to remain at 2.75% into early 2026, edging down to 2.50% by end‑2026, and then holding at 2.50% through at least 2027.

As you can see, these rate predictions reflect some uncertainty driven by U.S.-induced market turmoil — but for now, they don’t diverge widely.

How far could rates fall? Dan's deeper take. 

Trade uncertainty could push rates lower — or keep them higher.

Sound confusing? That's the sound of opposing economic forces, and why forecasting interest rates this year is a riskier business than usual.

Today, the prime rate sits around 4.95%, based on the current 2.75% BoC policy rate.

Before tariffs hit the headlines, I expected a resting Bank of Canada rate of 2.50%, with a bank prime rate settling around 4.70% (a typical spread we often see when markets stabilize).

However, U.S. tariffs, trade, and policy disruptions have thrown forecasts around wildly. U.S. tariffs are projected to cost Canadians and businesses billions, with signs already indicating a broad economic slowdown, which nudges sentiment towards rate cuts.

Yet at the same time, multiple inflationary stresses have come into play, along with tariff-induced price increases — including sufficient consumer spending to fuel inflation.

The problem is that everyone expected dire results immediately with the introduction of U.S. tariffs. However, Trump's multiple pullbacks and mind-changing eased those pressures enough in the short term, and we all know how long economic reality can take to show itself in full force — just think of the time it took for rapidly higher interest rates to cool hot inflation.

Until we see firmer expectations of a U.S. trade deal and clearer signs of slowing growth, weaker spending, and rising unemployment, the Bank of Canada is likely to hold rates steady to keep tariff- and demand-induced inflation in check.

Dan's rate prediction for the rest of 2025.

When tariffs suddenly appeared, predictions suggested that the BoC might need another 2 to 5 cuts (0.25% each), possibly bringing the policy rate down to 1.5% and prime to 4.45% or lower. Those predictions could still come true.

But for now, higher inflation and a still-resilient economy could delay or erase those rate-cut expectations in the near term.

If the Canadian economy shows sluggish growth and inflation eases slightly, we'll likely see at least one more BoC rate cut this year, returning to my original forecast of a BoC policy rate of 2.50% by year's end.

We’ll know more once the next round of economic readings are in and we see whether a U.S. trade deal manages to take shape, offering some clarity to bank on.

What is the current 'neutral' rate?

The BoC had indicated (before tariffs) that its neutral rate, a point at which the economy is neither stimulated nor repressed, is pegged at around 2.75. However, rates likely need to go lower to stimulate an economy dragged down by trade turmoil.

Is there a danger that the prime rate could increase?

There's always the danger that bank prime rates (led by the BoC policy rate) could increase to counter inflation, although the economic softening underway as a result of tariffs makes it unlikely for this year.

What about fixed mortgage rates?

Note that bond yields, which inform fixed rates, will be pushed and pulled by a mix of forces. In the short term, political and economic volatility is likely to push yields and fixed rates up, as they respond to inflationary and global instability. If another interest rate cut is anticipated for 2025, look for a decline in yields and fixed rates.

Fixed mortgage rates will experience fluctuation between interest rate announcements. Read the fixed rate section and see forecasts for 2025 to 2027.

Let's dive deeper into the latest economic numbers.

Why is Canada’s inflation still high in June 2025?

Canada's headline inflation in June rose to 1.9%, up from 1.7% in May, still below the Bank of Canada's 2.0% target. But that lower reading is mainly due to the removal of the federal carbon tax.

Inflation's pace measures current increases against the same month a year ago, so 'base year' effects can skew the comparisons. The carbon tax removal is a good example. Last year, this tax resulted in price increases. This year, with the tax removed, the comparison makes prices look lower than they actually are. Also affected in this latest report are higher gasoline and durable goods prices (such as passenger vehicles and furniture).

Stripping out the volatile energy component reveals that inflation remained stuck at 2.7%. Core inflation — the average of median and trimmed measures — is also holding at 3.0%, right at the top of the Bank of Canada's target range.

What does June's inflation report mean for an interest cut this summer? The numbers suggest there's little room for the BoC to lower its police rate right now, despite growing calls from Canadians hoping for budget relief.

The Bank of Montreal chief economist, Douglas Porter, pointed to the murkiness underlying the headline rate: "core is just too sticky. And our measure of the breadth of inflation showed no improvement in the latest month."

There's ongoing debate as to whether economic cooling could help keep inflation in check as the weeks march on, and whether a possible Canada-U.S. trade deal, which could land by July 21, the next Trump deadline, might ease some of the pricing pressure ahead.

Is Canada’s labour market weakening in mid-2025?

Canada's June labour market saw a significant 83,000 jobs created, which helped lower the unemployment rate to 6.9% from 7.0% in May, marking the first decrease since January 2025. Economists had expected a minor job gain and a UR tick up to 7.1%.

The stronger print comes on the back of summer hires, but it's still an encouraging economic sign amid the ongoing U.S. trade and policy chaos.

Will this labour bump be short-lived? That's highly possible, with everything economic dependent on how the U.S. trade agreement is ironed out, and whether inter-provincial and wider international trade improvement can pick up any employment slack.

It is worth noting that summer students (the demographic aged 15-24 years) continue to experience a higher unemployment rate of 17.4%, demonstrating that the underlying labour weakness hasn't disappeared.

However, for now, these numbers work against a BoC cut, not in favour of it.

How are trade tensions affecting Canada’s economic growth in 2025?

In 2024, Canadian GDP grew by more than expected, with a revised annualized pace of 2.6% (real GDP Q4 growth was 0.4%, quarter-over-quarter).

But in 2025, tariff trouble is disrupting a post-pandemic recovery — how much remains to be seen.

So far this year, growth forecasts have sailed into stronger headwinds. Q1 2025 saw an unexpected GDP gain of 0.4%, matching the increase in Q4 2024, likely due to consumers and businesses attempting to get ahead of the trade war.

However, April GDP contracted by 0.1%, dragged down by sectors most affected by the ongoing U.S. trade turmoil. May and Q2 2025 results are also lining up on the negative side.

Will the negative GDP dips be enough to sway the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again this summer? They might, if inflation doesn't show signs of an immediate surge.

How is economic volatility affecting Canada’s housing market in 2025?

National housing sales fell again in March 2025, and listings increased slightly; home prices remained relatively stable.

Will lowering interest rates (and new mortgage rules favouring younger buyers) encourage some buyers out this spring despite the trade-induced economic turmoil? Perhaps not, if financial concerns override the spring feeling of looking for a new home — or if home prices rise from a lack of inventory.

How is the U.S. economy influencing Canada’s interest rate outlook?

Like it or not, our countries' economies are closely linked.

With a Trump presidency, here are some current concerns:

• U.S. trade policies are causing supply and demand shocks, resulting in increased inflation in both countries
• U.S. tariffs of 25% (or more) on Canadian imports (and Canada's expected retaliations) could devastate our economy (Canada does about 75% of its export business with the U.S.) and eventually un-complicate the BoC's rate cut decisions with an outsized need to spur the economy
• Immigration issues between the two countries may further diminish our labour productivity
• The U.S. dollar is decreasing due to its trade stance, pushing up the Canadian dollar (disinflationary), but also indicates a worrying destabilization of world markets
• Interest rate divergence between the two central banks is now at 2.0%, pressuring input prices
• Proposed U.S. taxes (section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) on Canadian investments and companies could have a significant impact on our economy
• Investors are fleeing long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which is pushing yields up and adding to concerns about the U.S. handling its ballooning deficit — current U.S. debt interest payments add up to more than the defence budget 

When will fixed rates drop?

Fixed mortgage rates are steered by the Canadian bond market and (eventually) follow the movements in bond yields up or down. 5-year bond yields are the standard for setting 5-year fixed rates and are the reference in this section and blog.

Market volatility is keeping yields and fixed rates higher.

Canada's 5-year bond yields remain around 3.0% following the Bank of Canada's third rate pause this year, as the market speculation continues over whether tariffs will damage the economy enough to warrant further interest rate cuts, or if consumer resilience and trade tariffs will see inflation rise.

There's a stack of inflationary factors keeping upward pressure on bond yields:

• Stronger-than-expected Canadian job creation in June (83K, higher than the 50-60K that indicates a balanced economy)
• Higher U.S. trade tariffs could fuel another round of inflation
• Ballooning U.S. government debt is likely to require stimulus (aka govt bailouts), which the bond market reads as inflationary
• Canada's new government spending plans (such as increased defence spending) are likely to add to federal debt, which may lead to higher personal or business taxes
• U.S. political pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates early, which could add fuel to the U.S. economy and risk higher prices

On the other side of the scale:

• Canada's GDP contracted by 0.1% in April, with early signs of another dip in May
• Higher U.S. trade tariffs could further dampen economic growth
• Easing interprovincial trade barriers may help reduce consumer prices over time

For now, though, bond yields remain elevated. Business costs continue to rise, driven by global tensions, oil price hikes, supply chain strains, and tariff-related input pressures — all of which may soon trickle down to consumers through higher prices.

Expect lender specials to pop up or disappear quickly on specific fixed-rate terms, depending on yield movements. Lenders are closely monitoring their costs and retaining capital to address the potential for an increase in debt arrears.

Will fixed rates increase if inflation continues to rise?

If inflation continues to rise without a corresponding dip in consumer demand, current fixed rates may increase if yields remain elevated and the trend persists — 5-year fixed mortgage rates have recently risen by about 0.14%.

If a recession becomes more likely, fixed rates could eventually fall further in anticipation of further prime rate cuts.

Can the U.S. economy affect rate hikes here?

The U.S. economic landscape was looking pretty strong (along with rising inflation), but Trump's tariffs and mass government firings are showing up as underlying cracks.

The fresh U.S. President Trump/billionaire Elon Musk administration has thrown substantial uncertainty into how both economies will fare as 2025 is certain to become a year to remember (or forget).

Why do we care? Economic conditions south of the border can influence factors weighed by our central bank (and drive higher prices or economic detraction here) to affect its rate decisions.

Will Canada see a recession?

Despite the constant, distant calls of the 'recession' loon, it hasn't yet flown into our backyard. However, the recent trade disruption may finally beckon a hasty landing.

With the high-interest-rate environment so quickly imposed on Canadians to tame high inflation post-pandemic, a mild recession had been expected through the first half of 2024, which didn't materialize. Until Trump took office, Canada's growth projections were starting to look up for 2025.

Will market resilience keep our economy out of recessionary territory? Some experts expect a recessionary shock from the trade war. In time, it's hoped that Canadian businesses will adapt.

Canadian initiatives are already underway in an attempt to head off an economic blow — such as reducing inter-provincial trade barriers, reviewing restrictive government regulations that choke our productivity, and unfurling more international trade opportunities.

Before the trade disruption, our labour market and economic growth were showing signs of strength, yet household budgets are still straining under the higher prices all around.

A recession would bring mortgage rates down faster.

If economic weakening accelerates, the BoC would likely drop prime rates faster (assuming that job losses and spending pull back would place downward pressure on inflation's pace), providing more budget relief when we'll likely need it most.

Is stagflation a possible economic outcome?

Stagflation, an entrenched state of high inflation coupled with a weak economy and high unemployment, is on everyone's radar. The conditions for stagflation don't currently exist, as our inflation pace isn't high enough, having come down to around 2% from over 8%, and our unemployment rate is still within the 6's range.

Those conditions could change if cost-push inflation (artificially higher consumer prices due to tariffs instead of high demand) soars, the economy weakens, and declining interest rates don't spur enough (or fast enough) rebound spending.

Is mortgage activity picking up in 2025?

Home affordability has improved slightly in 2025 due to lower interest rates and cooling home prices in some Canadian centres.

There was anticipation of a spring housing rush as prime rates eased off — however, as the trade war continues, many home buyers are still holding off on their purchases amid economic uncertainty and as higher inflation attempts to stage a comeback.

Sellers are waiting as well, though some are starting to list as patience wears thin. The result is overall less demand and higher housing inventories than in past years. Buyers with sufficient financial resources or those relocating will still seek homes and may find deals on both mortgage rates and home prices in areas where market competition remains subdued.

Read more in our Housing Market Forecast 2025-2027

With over 1M renewals coming up in 2025, a recent Equifax report shows that over 28% of homeowners are making the switch to a better deal, a rise of about 46% compared to a year ago (according to a Mortgage Professionals Canada survey).

Dan's mortgage rate advice for 2025?

Let us shop for your best rate and mortgage.

Whether rates are falling or rising, your best rate and mortgage can help you better afford your home. Many Canadians are still very unaware that they don't have to stick to their bank for a mortgage, for a purchase, renewal or refinance.

• Shop around. You don't have to get a mortgage with your bank — doing so may result in paying a higher rate.
• Use an expert broker, preferably a highly trained, salaried, non-commissioned True North broker. You'll get expert, unbiased advice (in your preferred language) from a broker who only does mortgages.
• Hold your rate. Hold or lock in your rate with us to protect your budget from rate increases while you make home-buying or mortgage decisions.

First-time home buyers, especially, need expert advice to set them on a path to successful homeownership amid all these price pressures.

Fixed-rate choices are trending again as prime rates are paused — but a variable rate may still offer savings.

Variable rates are staying put for now, though lender discounts may vary.

Many of our clients are back to choosing a 5-year fixed rate (about 40% compared to 20% for a variable-rate choice), opting for rate and payment stability amid the trade volatility.

You may still want to consider a variable rate, which may currently be lower than a fixed rate, depending on your application details. A variable-rate mortgage offers more flexibility for watching the market — and you can switch penalty-free to a fixed rate if you get nervous about where rates may be headed.

Want more time to see what rates will do? Consider locking into a shorter fixed rate — such as our low short-term fixed Rate Relief™ product. If this product is right for you, it can help you bridge the gap with budget relief now while allowing time to pass before deciding on a longer commitment.

Owning a home is a tremendous source of pride in Canada. I created True North to provide clients with a better mortgage experience and save them thousands with their best rate and mortgage choice.

Have questions about your mortgage or pre-approval? Give us a shout, anywhere you are in Canada. We have your best rate, expert advice and unbeatable service — with over 16,000 5-star reviews from our happy clients.